Growth is one of the most important drivers of asset returns. An accurate and timely read of unfolding conditions is critical to investment success. The Augur Labs Timely Underlying Growth Nowcast is an alternative, big-data-driven measure of economic activities; it uncovers the true underlying strength of the economy in a timely fashion.
GDP is a noisy measure of growth, subject to high measurement errors. Instead of nowcasting GDP, Augur has created an alternative growth measure that unmasks the true underlying economic strength, allowing investors to look through the noise.
Augur’s indicators integrate a massive amount of traditional and alternative data for a timely view of the economy. The outputs include daily point estimates of growth by sector, as well as complete historical vintages. The total database has 15 million time series and over 5 billion data points.
Augur’s indicators are available for 37 economies, representing 90% of world GDP and nearly the entire investable universe. We apply the same, consistent model for all countries over time to facilitate comparability.
Updated daily, the indicators incorporate the latest data releases in a timely fashion.
Augur’s daily growth indicators start as early as 1961 for the US, the longest high-frequency growth estimates in the industry. Daily estimates are available for many developed economies since the 1970s and for many emerging countries since the 1990s.
We use real-time unrevised data whenever possible, providing a solid foundation for strategy backtests.