Inflation is one of the most important drivers of asset returns. An accurate and timely read of unfolding conditions is critical to investment success. The Augur Labs Timely Underlying Inflation Nowcast is an alternative, big-data-driven measure of CPI changes.
Global Inflation Nowcast as of 5/3/2024
| Underlying Inflation (3-Month, Annualized) | 1m Change | 3m Change | 1m History | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 5.5% | -1.2% | -1.8% | 6.68, 6.6, 6.565, 6.432, 6.196, 5.898, 5.81, 5.765, 5.724, 5.703, 5.685, 5.575, 5.532, 5.501, 5.45, 5.42, 5.278, 5.222, 5.248, 5.194, 5.513 |
| Developed World | 4.0% | 0.2% | 2.6% | 3.817, 3.829, 3.84, 3.777, 3.772, 3.763, 3.788, 3.774, 3.775, 3.786, 3.84, 3.869, 3.879, 3.905, 3.912, 3.936, 3.935, 3.917, 4.011, 3.994, 3.976 |
| United States | 4.8% | -0.3% | 3.4% | 5.077, 5.052, 5.05, 4.893, 4.879, 4.865, 4.826, 4.814, 4.799, 4.784, 4.772, 4.732, 4.716, 4.697, 4.679, 4.703, 4.64, 4.611, 4.816, 4.786, 4.754 |
| DW ex US | 3.3% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 2.661, 2.707, 2.729, 2.752, 2.756, 2.751, 2.835, 2.819, 2.834, 2.871, 2.985, 3.077, 3.11, 3.179, 3.207, 3.233, 3.288, 3.281, 3.271, 3.268, 3.262 |
| Euro Area | 3.3% | 0.5% | 2.3% | 2.868, 2.912, 2.933, 2.965, 2.946, 2.964, 3.053, 3.06, 3.097, 3.14, 3.183, 3.276, 3.312, 3.341, 3.37, 3.393, 3.423, 3.383, 3.369, 3.358, 3.346 |
| Core | 3.6% | 0.6% | 2.4% | 3.048, 3.083, 3.103, 3.121, 3.147, 3.158, 3.253, 3.291, 3.334, 3.386, 3.437, 3.539, 3.58, 3.614, 3.646, 3.67, 3.703, 3.679, 3.655, 3.634, 3.613 |
| Germany | 4.1% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 3.461, 3.432, 3.432, 3.436, 3.452, 3.477, 3.549, 3.583, 3.621, 3.677, 3.715, 3.824, 3.86, 3.896, 3.933, 3.961, 4.107, 4.124, 4.102, 4.079, 4.062 |
| France | 2.7% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 1.385, 1.502, 1.538, 1.575, 1.615, 1.596, 1.741, 1.796, 1.858, 1.923, 2.011, 2.174, 2.256, 2.324, 2.388, 2.443, 2.598, 2.77, 2.747, 2.728, 2.701 |
| Netherlands | 3.9% | -1.4% | 2.9% | 5.571, 5.579, 5.623, 5.624, 5.627, 5.635, 5.626, 5.612, 5.598, 5.583, 5.565, 5.406, 5.341, 5.25, 5.156, 5.053, 4.751, 3.978, 3.941, 3.922, 3.905 |
| Belgium | 4.4% | 0.6% | 3.3% | 3.851, 3.987, 4.037, 4.088, 4.148, 4.214, 4.415, 4.49, 4.568, 4.647, 4.725, 4.928, 4.994, 5.059, 5.124, 5.181, 4.41, 4.433, 4.403, 4.38, 4.354 |
| Periphery | 2.8% | 0.4% | 2.0% | 2.525, 2.585, 2.607, 2.665, 2.561, 2.593, 2.668, 2.615, 2.642, 2.668, 2.696, 2.774, 2.797, 2.818, 2.842, 2.864, 2.886, 2.815, 2.821, 2.829, 2.836 |
| Italy | 2.3% | 0.6% | 3.0% | 1.714, 1.816, 1.851, 1.884, 1.916, 1.95, 2.047, 1.904, 1.932, 1.959, 1.986, 2.058, 2.08, 2.101, 2.128, 2.155, 2.264, 2.206, 2.224, 2.245, 2.265 |
| Spain | 3.9% | 0.3% | 2.1% | 3.623, 3.621, 3.629, 3.64, 3.653, 3.685, 3.739, 3.766, 3.791, 3.819, 3.849, 3.95, 3.981, 4.008, 4.032, 4.048, 3.911, 3.911, 3.901, 3.894, 3.885 |
| Ireland | 1.2% | -0.9% | -1.8% | 2.146, 2.216, 2.233, 2.251, 1.151, 1.163, 1.181, 1.188, 1.195, 1.198, 1.204, 1.195, 1.186, 1.182, 1.174, 1.177, 1.211, 1.23, 1.229, 1.226, 1.224 |
| Portugal | 3.7% | 0.0% | 2.3% | 3.699, 3.778, 3.804, 3.756, 3.792, 3.831, 3.952, 3.999, 4.048, 4.092, 4.141, 4.253, 4.293, 4.332, 4.37, 4.403, 4.517, 3.677, 3.671, 3.668, 3.664 |
| Greece | 4.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.654, 2.66, 2.674, 3.507, 3.529, 3.564, 3.656, 3.699, 3.739, 3.782, 3.829, 3.972, 4.008, 4.039, 4.084, 4.126, 4.23, 4.264, 4.287, 4.309, 4.329 |
| Japan | 1.9% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.157, 1.143, 1.146, 1.15, 1.152, 1.157, 1.18, 1.194, 1.206, 1.225, 1.683, 1.763, 1.789, 1.816, 1.836, 1.863, 1.923, 1.947, 1.951, 1.948, 1.945 |
| United Kingdom | 4.0% | 0.1% | 2.4% | 3.866, 3.912, 3.928, 3.945, 3.963, 3.982, 4.036, 4.053, 3.897, 3.909, 3.921, 3.947, 3.956, 3.964, 3.973, 3.981, 4.003, 4.008, 4.0, 3.994, 3.987 |
| Canada | 4.2% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.467, 2.74, 2.849, 2.957, 3.068, 3.154, 3.455, 3.097, 3.189, 3.281, 3.376, 3.639, 3.729, 3.817, 3.896, 3.974, 4.201, 4.264, 4.237, 4.205, 4.221 |
| Australia | 4.3% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 3.068, 3.072, 3.076, 3.086, 3.098, 3.117, 3.19, 3.215, 3.242, 3.269, 3.302, 3.384, 3.424, 4.08, 4.117, 4.153, 4.273, 4.297, 4.31, 4.322, 4.333 |
| Switzerland | 1.7% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.13, 1.16, 1.173, 1.187, 1.203, 1.223, 1.283, 1.307, 1.333, 1.36, 1.386, 1.449, 1.47, 1.49, 1.51, 1.527, 1.585, 1.597, 1.568, 1.732, 1.708 |
| Sweden | 3.1% | -0.9% | 1.8% | 4.086, 4.069, 4.074, 4.081, 4.098, 2.962, 2.975, 2.998, 3.018, 3.037, 3.057, 3.083, 3.092, 3.095, 3.104, 3.106, 3.127, 3.122, 3.119, 3.125, 3.128 |
| Norway | 3.8% | -0.1% | -0.1% | 4.013, 4.027, 4.03, 3.791, 3.796, 3.805, 3.825, 3.834, 3.844, 3.856, 3.87, 3.89, 3.894, 3.897, 3.9, 3.903, 3.899, 3.894, 3.873, 3.854, 3.837 |
| New Zealand | 4.0% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.877, 2.921, 2.939, 2.959, 2.98, 3.006, 3.086, 3.121, 3.459, 3.492, 3.53, 3.631, 3.669, 3.708, 3.748, 3.786, 3.892, 3.929, 3.949, 3.969, 3.988 |
| Emerging Markets | 7.8% | -3.2% | -8.4% | 10.916, 10.701, 10.598, 10.363, 9.785, 9.059, 8.802, 8.711, 8.609, 8.54, 8.416, 8.101, 7.979, 7.862, 7.726, 7.615, 7.265, 7.152, 7.08, 6.97, 7.787 |
| China | 1.0% | -1.0% | 0.5% | 1.879, 1.919, 1.937, 1.952, 0.958, 0.965, 0.983, 0.989, 0.995, 1.002, 1.009, 1.013, 1.011, 1.008, 0.993, 0.992, 0.996, 1.001, 0.983, 0.966, 0.951 |
| EM ex China | 14.8% | -5.5% | -17.5% | 20.156, 19.679, 19.452, 18.961, 18.808, 17.334, 16.796, 16.607, 16.393, 16.247, 15.989, 15.347, 15.103, 14.87, 14.609, 14.386, 13.674, 13.441, 13.313, 13.109, 14.777 |
| EM Asia ex China | 3.9% | -0.1% | 1.6% | 4.121, 4.254, 4.232, 4.277, 4.322, 3.627, 3.744, 3.771, 3.802, 3.839, 3.878, 3.974, 3.951, 3.974, 3.941, 3.973, 4.059, 4.081, 4.067, 3.904, 3.911 |
| India | 5.1% | -0.5% | 0.5% | 5.762, 5.936, 6.013, 6.082, 6.148, 4.109, 4.274, 4.337, 4.395, 4.451, 4.511, 4.675, 4.729, 4.78, 4.834, 4.888, 5.044, 5.086, 5.103, 5.122, 5.143 |
| South Korea | 4.4% | 0.1% | 4.3% | 4.612, 4.809, 4.857, 4.901, 4.958, 5.025, 5.141, 5.108, 5.104, 5.128, 5.158, 5.177, 5.168, 5.15, 5.177, 5.206, 5.276, 5.293, 5.233, 4.445, 4.385 |
| Indonesia | 3.1% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 2.693, 2.743, 2.759, 2.776, 2.792, 2.809, 2.858, 2.874, 2.891, 2.907, 2.923, 2.973, 2.99, 3.007, 3.024, 3.042, 3.094, 3.112, 3.121, 3.052, 3.059 |
| Taiwan | 2.5% | -0.1% | 1.7% | 2.771, 2.874, 2.076, 2.111, 2.146, 2.182, 2.29, 2.324, 2.357, 2.392, 2.429, 2.531, 2.561, 2.587, 2.614, 2.639, 2.715, 2.731, 2.663, 2.599, 2.543 |
| Thailand | 2.1% | 1.1% | 3.1% | 0.954, 1.071, 1.112, 1.151, 1.189, 1.23, 1.358, 1.399, 1.439, 1.484, 1.532, 1.656, 1.695, 1.73, 1.766, 1.801, 1.89, 1.913, 1.888, 1.863, 2.147 |
| Malaysia | 1.6% | -1.1% | 0.8% | 2.833, 2.904, 2.932, 2.955, 2.979, 3.006, 3.086, 3.111, 3.134, 3.162, 3.191, 3.263, 3.283, 3.298, 1.794, 1.754, 1.627, 1.576, 1.589, 1.606, 1.628 |
| Philippines | 5.7% | 0.6% | 4.3% | 4.701, 4.835, 4.881, 4.926, 4.97, 5.018, 5.16, 5.207, 5.256, 5.307, 5.361, 5.502, 5.547, 5.59, 5.609, 5.651, 5.76, 5.79, 5.756, 5.724, 5.698 |
| Singapore | 2.4% | -1.1% | 0.3% | 3.638, 3.651, 3.658, 3.662, 3.665, 3.671, 3.688, 3.691, 3.693, 3.699, 3.706, 3.717, 2.608, 2.593, 2.579, 2.563, 2.513, 2.487, 2.448, 2.413, 2.386 |
| Hong Kong | 1.4% | 0.6% | -1.0% | 0.836, 0.895, 0.914, 0.934, 0.954, 0.973, 1.032, 1.051, 1.071, 1.09, 1.11, 1.169, 1.233, 1.253, 1.273, 1.294, 1.355, 1.376, 1.39, 1.405, 1.42 |
| Latin America | 35.1% | -30.6% | -91.4% | 64.828, 62.46, 61.501, 59.86, 59.02, 53.944, 51.35, 50.45, 49.459, 48.763, 47.533, 44.541, 43.528, 42.492, 41.472, 40.466, 37.355, 36.276, 35.852, 35.446, 35.078 |
| Brazil | 3.0% | -2.0% | -1.0% | 4.934, 4.919, 4.916, 3.239, 3.218, 3.201, 3.137, 3.123, 3.109, 3.098, 3.088, 3.07, 3.067, 3.063, 3.062, 3.061, 3.042, 3.036, 3.033, 3.029, 3.027 |
| Mexico | 4.1% | -0.5% | -0.7% | 4.559, 4.56, 4.211, 4.206, 4.199, 4.201, 4.148, 4.139, 4.131, 4.122, 4.112, 4.085, 4.065, 4.036, 4.011, 4.006, 4.009, 4.001, 4.012, 4.027, 4.059 |
| Argentina | 217.6% | -199.5% | -614.2% | 411.707, 395.711, 390.105, 384.465, 378.855, 344.512, 327.277, 321.251, 314.6, 309.943, 301.667, 281.517, 274.712, 267.777, 260.936, 254.137, 233.113, 225.84, 222.948, 220.168, 217.6 |
| EM Europe | 21.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 16.422, 16.266, 16.227, 15.546, 15.566, 15.514, 15.353, 15.311, 15.257, 15.19, 15.133, 14.932, 14.877, 14.785, 14.679, 14.584, 14.213, 14.162, 14.035, 13.905, 21.361 |
| Russia | 4.8% | -1.4% | -2.5% | 6.267, 6.29, 6.32, 5.17, 5.164, 5.158, 5.14, 5.136, 5.136, 5.132, 5.132, 5.106, 5.147, 5.161, 5.144, 5.135, 5.02, 4.989, 4.949, 4.887, 4.836 |
| Turkey | 82.5% | 23.2% | 27.8% | 59.162, 58.212, 57.894, 57.566, 57.244, 56.926, 55.926, 55.58, 55.219, 54.798, 54.426, 53.219, 52.748, 52.154, 51.559, 50.999, 49.115, 48.44, 47.898, 47.387, 82.461 |
| Poland | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.003, 1.111, 1.161, 1.221, 1.29, 1.36, 1.584, 1.662, 1.747, 1.841, 1.926, 2.198, 2.297, 2.417, 2.551, 2.68, 3.068, 3.678, 3.72, 3.764, 3.798 |
| Czech Republic | 5.2% | 0.6% | 4.3% | 4.757, 4.897, 4.937, 4.281, 4.325, 4.374, 4.519, 4.574, 4.631, 4.688, 4.744, 4.892, 4.94, 4.987, 5.033, 5.074, 5.211, 5.246, 5.234, 5.228, 5.219 |
| Hungary | 7.8% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 3.546, 3.709, 3.764, 3.822, 5.563, 5.653, 5.925, 6.304, 6.408, 6.513, 6.618, 6.903, 6.998, 7.091, 7.184, 7.271, 7.546, 7.625, 7.67, 7.722, 7.771 |
| South Africa | 6.2% | 0.1% | 5.5% | 6.193, 6.236, 6.245, 6.246, 6.244, 6.241, 6.188, 6.178, 6.062, 6.06, 6.064, 6.082, 6.098, 6.112, 6.126, 6.138, 6.187, 6.207, 6.209, 6.212, 6.215 |