Growth is one of the most important drivers of asset returns. An accurate and timely read of unfolding conditions is critical to investment success. The Augur Labs Timely Underlying Growth Nowcast is an alternative, big-data-driven measure of economic activities; it uncovers the true underlying strength of the economy in a timely fashion.
| Underlying Growth | 1m Change | 3m Change | 1m History | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 2.8% | -0.1% | 1.1% | 2.867, 2.784, 2.807, 2.767, 2.618, 2.632, 2.682, 2.624, 2.664, 2.661, 2.814, 2.794, 2.789, 2.771, 2.84, 2.763, 2.721, 2.732, 2.743, 2.827, 2.803 |
| Developed World | 0.2% | -0.0% | -1.3% | 0.091, -0.045, -0.002, -0.122, -0.445, -0.24, -0.166, -0.183, -0.142, -0.139, 0.111, 0.096, 0.082, 0.079, 0.073, 0.022, -0.037, 0.022, 0.044, 0.248, 0.24 |
| United States | 0.4% | 0.8% | -1.3% | -0.68, -0.8, -0.678, -0.833, -1.315, -1.261, -0.962, -0.96, -0.859, -0.854, -0.078, -0.082, -0.077, -0.079, -0.076, -0.052, -0.318, -0.106, -0.08, 0.392, 0.398 |
| DW ex US | 0.1% | -0.6% | -1.3% | 0.66, 0.512, 0.497, 0.403, 0.197, 0.513, 0.421, 0.391, 0.387, 0.387, 0.251, 0.228, 0.2, 0.195, 0.183, 0.077, 0.17, 0.116, 0.136, 0.141, 0.123 |
| Euro Area | -0.0% | -1.3% | -0.9% | 1.159, 0.903, 0.88, 0.696, 0.345, 0.503, 0.34, 0.304, 0.296, 0.299, 0.219, 0.198, 0.152, 0.151, 0.14, 0.049, 0.028, 0.017, 0.024, 0.005, -0.002 |
| Core | -0.7% | -1.2% | -0.6% | 0.293, -0.084, -0.11, -0.146, -0.52, -0.393, -0.5, -0.506, -0.43, -0.454, -0.465, -0.495, -0.569, -0.583, -0.601, -0.611, -0.641, -0.657, -0.645, -0.68, -0.691 |
| Germany | -2.3% | -1.8% | -0.2% | -0.825, -1.528, -1.566, -1.603, -2.299, -2.028, -2.191, -2.199, -2.042, -2.083, -2.062, -2.1, -2.113, -2.126, -2.139, -2.152, -2.19, -2.219, -2.233, -2.246, -2.26 |
| France | 1.0% | -0.4% | -0.5% | 1.309, 1.264, 1.249, 1.206, 1.189, 1.218, 1.179, 1.176, 1.182, 1.177, 1.214, 1.2, 1.006, 1.001, 0.996, 0.992, 0.977, 0.973, 0.968, 0.963, 0.958 |
| Netherlands | 0.3% | -1.0% | -2.3% | 1.274, 1.211, 1.19, 1.169, 1.024, 0.909, 0.79, 0.777, 0.765, 0.752, 0.546, 0.498, 0.482, 0.431, 0.415, 0.399, 0.351, 0.335, 0.526, 0.28, 0.263 |
| Belgium | 0.8% | -0.9% | -1.2% | 1.693, 1.511, 1.502, 1.492, 1.257, 1.243, 1.216, 1.216, 1.198, 1.199, 1.008, 0.992, 0.986, 0.981, 0.852, 0.847, 0.833, 0.846, 0.841, 0.836, 0.831 |
| Periphery | 1.2% | -1.5% | -1.4% | 2.632, 2.581, 2.565, 2.127, 1.818, 2.026, 1.769, 1.682, 1.532, 1.578, 1.381, 1.377, 1.379, 1.4, 1.399, 1.171, 1.166, 1.164, 1.162, 1.172, 1.17 |
| Italy | -0.1% | -2.3% | -2.7% | 2.125, 2.051, 2.027, 1.092, 1.146, 1.314, 1.09, 1.07, 0.759, 0.743, 0.253, 0.277, 0.285, 0.293, 0.301, -0.18, -0.157, -0.149, -0.141, -0.134, -0.126 |
| Spain | 2.8% | -0.9% | 0.3% | 3.729, 3.698, 3.687, 3.677, 3.057, 3.555, 3.174, 2.945, 2.932, 2.918, 2.965, 2.929, 2.917, 2.905, 2.893, 2.881, 2.845, 2.833, 2.821, 2.842, 2.83 |
| Ireland | -1.1% | -1.1% | -2.8% | 0.006, -0.03, -0.042, -0.053, -1.441, -1.487, -1.592, -1.573, -1.586, -0.859, -1.001, -1.03, -0.972, -0.982, -0.992, -1.002, -1.032, -1.059, -1.069, -1.079, -1.089 |
| Portugal | 2.1% | -0.6% | -0.1% | 2.698, 2.676, 2.669, 2.662, 2.526, 2.282, 2.26, 2.235, 2.231, 2.227, 2.179, 2.167, 2.137, 2.133, 2.13, 2.126, 2.115, 2.111, 2.107, 2.103, 2.099 |
| Greece | 4.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 3.898, 3.869, 3.859, 3.849, 3.754, 3.442, 3.158, 3.15, 3.143, 3.135, 3.65, 3.646, 3.645, 4.045, 4.043, 4.041, 4.035, 4.034, 4.032, 4.03, 4.028 |
| Japan | -0.7% | 1.7% | -0.5% | -2.427, -2.396, -2.385, -2.375, -2.36, -0.939, -0.962, -0.963, -0.985, -0.986, -1.137, -1.181, -1.196, -1.211, -1.225, -1.24, -0.752, -0.747, -0.652, -0.667, -0.684 |
| United Kingdom | 0.5% | -1.7% | -2.8% | 2.009, 1.876, 1.837, 1.821, 1.805, 1.789, 1.744, 1.737, 1.705, 1.759, 1.669, 1.642, 1.633, 1.624, 1.615, 1.053, 1.024, 0.581, 0.574, 0.567, 0.45 |
| Canada | -0.4% | -1.0% | -4.6% | 0.541, 0.502, 0.504, 0.496, 0.483, 0.081, 0.239, 0.184, 0.188, 0.071, -0.786, -0.819, -0.83, -0.842, -0.853, -0.765, -0.615, -0.612, -0.616, -0.462, -0.438 |
| Australia | 3.3% | 0.1% | -0.2% | 3.241, 3.204, 3.191, 3.179, 3.144, 3.132, 3.012, 3.004, 3.133, 3.146, 3.229, 3.217, 3.249, 3.237, 3.226, 3.214, 3.179, 3.202, 3.19, 3.359, 3.346 |
| Switzerland | 0.0% | -0.9% | -0.8% | 0.94, 0.925, 0.92, 0.966, 0.963, 0.504, 0.47, 0.172, 0.174, 0.175, 0.117, 0.274, 0.264, 0.255, 0.245, 0.236, 0.207, 0.197, 0.187, 0.07, 0.044 |
| Sweden | 1.8% | -1.2% | -2.9% | 2.952, 2.919, 2.908, 3.077, 2.045, 2.234, 2.234, 2.223, 2.128, 2.117, 2.025, 1.97, 1.951, 1.973, 1.954, 1.935, 1.879, 1.86, 1.841, 1.822, 1.804 |
| Norway | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 1.602, 1.622, 1.629, 1.636, 1.637, 1.582, 1.604, 1.611, 1.617, 1.623, 1.381, 1.303, 1.31, 1.318, 1.325, 1.333, 2.077, 2.088, 2.099, 2.429, 2.44 |
| New Zealand | 0.2% | 1.1% | -0.6% | -0.931, -0.904, -0.895, -0.886, -0.841, -0.912, -0.872, -0.86, -0.455, -0.444, -0.455, -0.425, -0.457, -0.447, -0.388, -0.107, -0.077, -0.067, -0.057, -0.047, 0.178 |
| Emerging Markets | 4.9% | -0.2% | 3.1% | 5.173, 5.135, 5.141, 5.167, 5.162, 5.017, 5.047, 4.956, 4.994, 4.987, 5.059, 5.036, 5.037, 5.008, 5.139, 5.04, 5.012, 4.983, 4.985, 4.969, 4.932 |
| China | 7.3% | -0.5% | 9.1% | 7.901, 7.905, 7.91, 7.915, 7.92, 7.543, 7.418, 7.403, 7.623, 7.607, 7.667, 7.639, 7.61, 7.582, 7.862, 7.763, 7.46, 7.432, 7.403, 7.374, 7.345 |
| EM ex China | 3.4% | -0.0% | -0.8% | 3.41, 3.344, 3.351, 3.391, 3.38, 3.385, 3.514, 3.375, 3.295, 3.294, 3.374, 3.354, 3.375, 3.345, 3.379, 3.279, 3.429, 3.401, 3.423, 3.415, 3.372 |
| EM Asia ex China | 5.2% | -0.2% | -1.4% | 5.39, 5.274, 5.287, 5.258, 5.231, 5.146, 5.459, 5.25, 5.145, 5.158, 4.784, 4.786, 4.812, 4.806, 4.865, 4.959, 5.25, 5.207, 5.264, 5.258, 5.188 |
| India | 6.8% | -0.8% | -2.4% | 7.62, 7.622, 7.622, 7.623, 7.623, 7.509, 7.946, 7.164, 6.932, 6.918, 6.883, 6.828, 6.81, 6.792, 6.773, 6.943, 6.889, 6.87, 6.852, 6.834, 6.816 |
| South Korea | 1.1% | 0.8% | -1.5% | 0.265, 0.181, 0.497, -0.306, -0.438, -0.337, 0.87, 0.899, 0.928, 0.957, 0.91, 0.951, 0.964, 0.937, 0.951, 0.965, 1.005, 1.019, 1.033, 1.046, 1.06 |
| Indonesia | 5.1% | 1.1% | -1.5% | 4.009, 3.906, 3.871, 3.837, 3.802, 3.767, 3.837, 3.924, 4.012, 4.099, 2.91, 3.094, 3.092, 3.138, 3.485, 3.527, 5.314, 5.102, 5.115, 5.129, 5.142 |
| Taiwan | 0.0% | -1.7% | -2.6% | 1.686, 1.673, 1.722, 1.561, 1.602, 1.474, 0.916, 0.951, 0.986, 1.02, -0.104, -0.088, -0.068, -0.048, -0.029, -0.095, -0.035, -0.015, 0.005, 0.025, 0.044 |
| Thailand | 4.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.453, 1.32, 1.34, 2.672, 2.671, 2.671, 2.817, 4.913, 4.885, 4.857, 4.835, 4.752, 4.724, 4.697, 4.687, 4.659, 4.926, 4.897, 4.868, 4.839, 4.81 |
| Malaysia | 7.7% | -1.7% | 0.9% | 9.257, 8.918, 8.722, 8.527, 8.331, 8.136, 7.777, 7.808, 7.839, 7.871, 7.902, 7.997, 8.453, 8.494, 8.536, 8.843, 8.966, 9.007, 9.048, 9.088, 7.73 |
| Philippines | 5.6% | 0.5% | -0.3% | 5.077, 5.094, 5.099, 5.104, 5.11, 5.115, 4.971, 4.979, 4.987, 4.994, 5.002, 5.025, 5.521, 5.524, 5.528, 5.532, 5.544, 5.548, 5.552, 5.556, 5.56 |
| Singapore | 5.0% | -0.5% | 1.1% | 5.464, 5.434, 4.991, 4.993, 4.996, 4.213, 4.243, 3.75, 3.787, 3.79, 3.138, 3.121, 3.115, 3.109, 3.386, 3.379, 3.357, 3.349, 5.002, 4.999, 4.996 |
| Hong Kong | 2.7% | -5.0% | -0.3% | 7.685, 7.662, 7.655, 7.647, 7.64, 7.633, 8.113, 8.131, 7.212, 7.175, 3.983, 3.595, 3.12, 2.993, 2.867, 2.887, 2.504, 2.377, 2.935, 2.809, 2.684 |
| Latin America | 2.7% | -0.8% | -2.1% | 3.424, 3.245, 3.184, 3.344, 3.312, 3.257, 3.395, 3.23, 3.039, 2.958, 3.366, 3.215, 3.239, 2.974, 3.01, 2.969, 2.863, 2.823, 2.782, 2.741, 2.686 |
| Brazil | 4.5% | -1.6% | -0.1% | 6.085, 6.094, 6.095, 6.096, 6.2, 6.201, 6.098, 5.768, 5.243, 5.227, 5.106, 4.979, 4.937, 4.444, 4.611, 4.591, 4.565, 4.545, 4.524, 4.504, 4.484 |
| Mexico | -0.5% | -0.4% | -5.2% | -0.304, -0.69, -0.818, -0.362, -0.543, -0.658, -0.098, -0.123, -0.148, -0.34, 0.676, 0.431, 0.349, 0.268, 0.155, 0.075, -0.167, -0.247, -0.328, -0.408, -0.529 |
| Argentina | 5.1% | 0.6% | -0.9% | 4.392, 4.138, 4.047, 3.963, 3.879, 3.794, 3.632, 3.639, 4.085, 4.082, 4.636, 4.647, 5.143, 5.137, 5.132, 5.127, 5.112, 5.107, 5.102, 5.097, 5.092 |
| EM Europe | -0.1% | 0.9% | 1.9% | -0.912, -0.782, -0.734, -0.627, -0.584, -0.38, -0.66, -0.631, -0.573, -0.545, 0.299, 0.324, 0.334, 0.402, 0.41, -0.191, -0.154, -0.142, -0.144, -0.132, -0.107 |
| Russia | -1.3% | 3.2% | 6.8% | -4.427, -4.118, -4.015, -3.793, -3.722, -3.65, -3.813, -3.753, -3.614, -3.555, -0.663, -0.55, -0.513, -0.475, -0.437, -1.631, -1.491, -1.444, -1.398, -1.351, -1.304 |
| Turkey | 0.4% | -2.4% | -4.0% | 2.801, 2.6, 2.589, 2.579, 2.569, 3.28, 2.82, 2.815, 2.809, 2.804, 0.52, 0.424, 0.392, 0.581, 0.544, 0.658, 0.536, 0.496, 0.455, 0.415, 0.375 |
| Poland | 2.2% | -0.9% | -1.9% | 3.077, 3.183, 3.176, 3.168, 3.119, 3.11, 2.632, 2.628, 2.577, 2.573, 2.512, 2.496, 2.491, 2.486, 2.481, 2.262, 2.246, 2.241, 2.142, 2.137, 2.22 |
| Czech Republic | -0.0% | -0.1% | -2.3% | 0.006, 0.283, 0.289, 0.296, 0.303, -0.025, -0.263, -0.261, -0.259, -0.257, -0.229, -0.1, -0.095, -0.09, -0.085, -0.081, -0.067, -0.062, -0.057, -0.052, -0.048 |
| Hungary | 3.4% | 0.1% | -0.5% | 3.195, 3.165, 3.154, 3.144, 3.583, 3.585, 3.72, 3.716, 3.668, 3.665, 3.678, 3.401, 3.397, 3.393, 3.388, 3.384, 3.372, 3.368, 3.36, 3.356, 3.352 |
| South Africa | 1.8% | 0.8% | -1.0% | 0.975, 0.981, 0.983, 0.986, 0.988, 1.545, 1.48, 1.458, 1.436, 1.463, 1.769, 1.79, 1.797, 2.071, 1.788, 1.791, 1.8, 1.803, 1.749, 1.752, 1.755 |