Growth is one of the most important drivers of asset returns. An accurate and timely read of unfolding conditions is critical to investment success. The Augur Labs Timely Underlying Growth Nowcast is an alternative, big-data-driven measure of economic activities; it uncovers the true underlying strength of the economy in a timely fashion.
Global Growth Nowcast as of 4/25/2024
| Underlying Growth | 1m Change | 3m Change | 1m History | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 3.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 3.026, 3.247, 3.378, 3.38, 3.356, 3.407, 3.629, 3.67, 3.665, 3.718, 3.7, 3.666, 3.651, 3.555, 3.594, 3.64, 3.635, 3.672, 3.67, 3.667, 3.642 |
| Developed World | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.758, 0.747, 0.987, 0.998, 0.989, 0.991, 1.154, 1.198, 1.192, 1.197, 1.215, 1.203, 1.278, 1.297, 1.357, 1.495, 1.506, 1.546, 1.493, 1.469, 1.377 |
| United States | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.776, 0.826, 1.256, 1.263, 1.241, 1.161, 1.574, 1.594, 1.584, 1.59, 1.653, 1.661, 1.769, 1.875, 1.885, 2.159, 2.184, 2.258, 2.098, 2.113, 1.978 |
| DW ex US | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.745, 0.687, 0.782, 0.795, 0.797, 0.861, 0.832, 0.894, 0.893, 0.897, 0.879, 0.852, 0.903, 0.856, 0.953, 0.987, 0.987, 1.001, 1.03, 0.976, 0.917 |
| Euro Area | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.905, 0.907, 1.019, 1.044, 1.043, 1.105, 1.109, 1.216, 1.221, 1.211, 1.171, 1.154, 1.171, 1.209, 1.214, 1.252, 1.251, 1.263, 1.267, 1.241, 1.186 |
| Core | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.153, 0.162, 0.336, 0.373, 0.381, 0.405, 0.394, 0.568, 0.576, 0.564, 0.528, 0.542, 0.57, 0.608, 0.616, 0.667, 0.676, 0.696, 0.695, 0.828, 0.747 |
| Germany | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% | -1.063, -1.051, -0.692, -0.654, -0.643, -0.602, -0.627, -0.275, -0.265, -0.255, -0.245, -0.236, -0.206, -0.131, -0.117, -0.103, -0.089, -0.047, 0.016, 0.289, 0.315 |
| France | 1.1% | -0.4% | 0.4% | 1.47, 1.479, 1.501, 1.513, 1.52, 1.529, 1.531, 1.54, 1.55, 1.553, 1.433, 1.435, 1.444, 1.447, 1.45, 1.453, 1.456, 1.465, 1.371, 1.37, 1.094 |
| Netherlands | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.476, 0.478, 0.484, 0.611, 0.613, 0.615, 0.618, 0.624, 0.626, 0.619, 0.621, 0.69, 0.697, 0.699, 0.701, 1.088, 1.092, 1.088, 1.09, 1.093, 1.096 |
| Belgium | 1.5% | -0.1% | -0.1% | 1.641, 1.641, 1.546, 1.55, 1.553, 1.557, 1.561, 1.571, 1.575, 1.319, 1.323, 1.328, 1.48, 1.484, 1.489, 1.493, 1.497, 1.462, 1.464, 1.495, 1.498 |
| Periphery | 1.9% | -0.1% | 0.6% | 2.159, 2.15, 2.157, 2.162, 2.148, 2.274, 2.302, 2.298, 2.296, 2.292, 2.245, 2.174, 2.172, 2.213, 2.212, 2.228, 2.21, 2.208, 2.221, 1.93, 1.918 |
| Italy | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 1.043, 1.06, 1.253, 1.587, 1.559, 1.814, 1.814, 1.815, 1.815, 1.811, 1.712, 1.562, 1.567, 1.662, 1.663, 1.665, 1.666, 1.669, 1.67, 1.043, 1.019 |
| Spain | 3.0% | -0.5% | 0.2% | 3.487, 3.476, 3.353, 2.891, 2.886, 2.97, 3.054, 3.039, 3.034, 3.029, 3.024, 3.019, 3.003, 2.998, 2.993, 3.038, 2.982, 2.967, 3.004, 2.999, 2.994 |
| Ireland | 2.4% | -0.2% | 1.3% | 2.504, 2.512, 2.546, 2.549, 2.553, 2.347, 2.349, 2.355, 2.339, 2.341, 2.344, 2.346, 2.352, 2.334, 2.336, 2.339, 2.341, 2.348, 2.35, 2.352, 2.354 |
| Portugal | 2.1% | -0.1% | 0.2% | 2.167, 2.171, 2.01, 2.021, 2.022, 2.023, 2.024, 2.027, 2.041, 2.042, 2.043, 2.044, 2.047, 2.048, 2.049, 2.05, 2.051, 2.054, 2.055, 2.056, 2.057 |
| Greece | 2.2% | -0.8% | 1.1% | 3.055, 2.809, 2.187, 2.188, 2.188, 2.189, 2.199, 2.202, 2.202, 2.18, 2.181, 2.182, 2.185, 2.185, 2.186, 2.187, 2.188, 2.191, 2.192, 2.193, 2.193 |
| Japan | -0.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% | -0.944, -1.289, -1.185, -1.171, -1.176, -1.162, -1.147, -1.104, -1.111, -1.096, -1.081, -1.184, -1.026, -1.011, -0.468, -0.357, -0.346, -0.301, -0.138, -0.117, -0.095 |
| United Kingdom | -0.1% | -0.9% | -0.1% | 0.85, 0.854, 0.867, 0.89, 0.891, 0.879, 0.88, 0.886, 0.887, 0.889, 0.891, 0.971, 0.976, 0.339, 0.343, 0.347, 0.336, 0.348, 0.312, 0.202, -0.052 |
| Canada | 2.1% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 2.253, 2.261, 2.518, 2.522, 2.527, 2.918, 2.382, 2.39, 2.393, 2.497, 2.499, 2.416, 2.623, 2.611, 2.605, 2.53, 2.523, 2.504, 2.498, 2.077, 2.071 |
| Australia | 1.8% | -0.2% | 0.9% | 2.018, 2.013, 1.994, 1.942, 1.987, 2.007, 2.035, 2.038, 1.974, 1.968, 1.962, 1.956, 1.938, 1.929, 1.923, 1.868, 1.862, 1.844, 1.838, 1.832, 1.826 |
| Switzerland | 1.1% | 0.1% | 1.1% | 1.036, 1.045, 1.082, 1.055, 1.059, 1.064, 1.068, 0.941, 0.945, 0.949, 0.954, 0.958, 0.97, 0.996, 1.0, 1.008, 1.012, 1.025, 1.029, 1.088, 1.094 |
| Sweden | 1.7% | -0.1% | 1.8% | 1.786, 1.813, 1.848, 1.809, 1.819, 1.881, 1.891, 1.921, 1.931, 1.913, 1.923, 1.933, 1.964, 1.974, 1.984, 1.994, 2.004, 2.035, 2.045, 1.827, 1.665 |
| Norway | 1.2% | -0.1% | 0.7% | 1.34, 1.357, 1.373, 1.306, 1.306, 1.307, 1.307, 1.216, 1.216, 1.216, 1.216, 1.216, 1.153, 1.154, 1.154, 1.229, 1.23, 1.231, 1.351, 1.357, 1.24 |
| New Zealand | 0.1% | -1.0% | -0.4% | 0.276, 0.251, -0.015, -0.013, -0.01, 0.169, 0.177, 0.184, 0.186, 0.189, 0.191, -0.06, -0.019, -0.016, -0.014, -0.011, -0.009, -0.001, 0.001, 0.052, 0.054 |
| Emerging Markets | 5.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 4.858, 5.267, 5.31, 5.304, 5.269, 5.359, 5.629, 5.668, 5.664, 5.754, 5.708, 5.657, 5.569, 5.379, 5.402, 5.374, 5.355, 5.39, 5.43, 5.443, 5.472 |
| China | 6.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 5.426, 6.368, 6.387, 6.399, 6.356, 6.368, 6.404, 6.417, 6.429, 6.592, 6.604, 6.65, 6.662, 6.176, 6.266, 6.279, 6.317, 6.33, 6.343, 6.356, 6.368 |
| EM ex China | 4.9% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 4.47, 4.515, 4.574, 4.556, 4.526, 4.67, 5.099, 5.157, 5.141, 5.182, 5.095, 4.978, 4.822, 4.834, 4.812, 4.756, 4.697, 4.748, 4.806, 4.819, 4.86 |
| EM Asia ex China | 5.3% | -0.7% | -0.1% | 5.899, 5.958, 5.816, 5.804, 5.688, 5.723, 5.753, 5.766, 5.764, 5.836, 5.783, 5.57, 5.246, 5.248, 5.242, 5.237, 5.155, 5.174, 5.247, 5.255, 5.319 |
| India | 7.4% | -1.1% | -0.4% | 8.355, 8.382, 8.217, 8.19, 8.185, 8.261, 8.256, 8.242, 8.237, 8.232, 8.228, 7.877, 7.182, 7.183, 7.185, 7.186, 7.188, 7.192, 7.361, 7.37, 7.379 |
| South Korea | 2.2% | -0.3% | 0.2% | 2.478, 2.55, 2.092, 2.092, 2.092, 2.092, 2.091, 2.091, 2.091, 2.091, 2.091, 1.771, 1.769, 1.768, 1.767, 1.766, 1.766, 1.764, 1.763, 1.783, 2.222 |
| Indonesia | 4.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | 4.876, 4.881, 4.798, 4.794, 4.791, 4.787, 4.784, 4.773, 4.77, 4.767, 4.416, 4.416, 4.414, 4.428, 4.354, 4.354, 4.353, 4.352, 4.352, 4.352, 4.351 |
| Taiwan | 5.2% | 0.9% | 4.3% | 4.35, 4.357, 4.341, 4.331, 4.322, 4.313, 4.304, 4.276, 4.266, 5.586, 5.554, 5.523, 5.427, 5.395, 5.363, 5.331, 5.299, 5.39, 5.257, 5.226, 5.196 |
| Thailand | 0.4% | -0.9% | -3.1% | 1.011, 1.5, 1.481, 1.502, -0.444, -0.403, -0.362, -0.24, -0.199, -0.281, -0.239, -0.197, -0.071, -0.029, 0.013, 0.055, 0.098, 0.224, 0.266, 0.308, 0.35 |
| Malaysia | 3.6% | -1.2% | 0.6% | 4.745, 4.769, 4.803, 4.787, 4.77, 4.754, 4.738, 5.07, 5.051, 5.033, 5.014, 4.995, 4.939, 4.921, 4.902, 4.883, 3.327, 3.417, 3.447, 3.477, 3.563 |
| Philippines | 5.7% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 5.408, 5.529, 5.497, 5.498, 5.498, 5.499, 5.499, 5.501, 5.501, 5.502, 5.621, 5.747, 5.741, 5.739, 5.737, 5.735, 5.733, 5.727, 5.725, 5.723, 5.721 |
| Singapore | 5.3% | 0.1% | 1.3% | 5.172, 5.16, 5.129, 5.181, 5.186, 5.185, 5.934, 5.922, 5.917, 5.913, 5.909, 5.137, 5.142, 5.144, 5.331, 5.331, 5.33, 5.328, 5.328, 5.327, 5.327 |
| Hong Kong | 2.8% | 0.2% | -0.5% | 2.632, 2.631, 2.654, 2.653, 3.054, 3.051, 3.476, 3.464, 3.46, 3.456, 3.523, 3.519, 3.184, 3.181, 3.178, 2.937, 2.461, 2.464, 2.466, 2.467, 2.784 |
| Latin America | 1.8% | 0.3% | 2.1% | 1.51, 1.525, 1.838, 1.795, 1.69, 1.668, 1.58, 1.656, 1.581, 1.595, 1.769, 1.783, 1.822, 1.835, 1.744, 1.459, 1.463, 1.492, 1.654, 1.779, 1.807 |
| Brazil | 3.7% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 3.407, 3.414, 3.477, 3.478, 3.394, 3.289, 3.291, 3.373, 3.375, 3.377, 3.791, 3.791, 3.792, 3.792, 3.58, 3.568, 3.556, 3.52, 3.508, 3.782, 3.732 |
| Mexico | 3.2% | 0.2% | 2.4% | 2.984, 2.987, 3.818, 3.663, 3.451, 3.499, 3.351, 3.347, 3.346, 3.345, 3.229, 3.229, 3.228, 3.228, 3.228, 3.227, 3.213, 3.212, 3.212, 3.212, 3.212 |
| Argentina | -7.8% | 0.4% | 3.7% | -8.158, -8.09, -8.187, -8.108, -8.028, -7.948, -8.184, -7.938, -8.438, -8.351, -8.264, -8.177, -7.916, -7.829, -7.742, -9.594, -9.491, -9.181, -8.071, -8.135, -7.786 |
| EM Europe | 6.4% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.783, 3.828, 4.156, 4.189, 4.396, 4.918, 6.635, 6.775, 6.767, 6.759, 6.378, 6.365, 6.418, 6.447, 6.44, 6.432, 6.372, 6.506, 6.459, 6.402, 6.399 |
| Russia | 6.7% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.807, 2.811, 3.576, 3.576, 4.001, 3.999, 7.503, 7.492, 7.488, 7.485, 6.722, 6.723, 6.724, 6.725, 6.725, 6.726, 6.726, 6.727, 6.728, 6.71, 6.711 |
| Turkey | 9.0% | 2.5% | 6.2% | 6.487, 6.642, 6.525, 6.516, 6.507, 8.403, 8.384, 8.752, 8.727, 8.701, 8.676, 8.651, 8.833, 8.937, 8.905, 8.874, 8.842, 9.355, 9.182, 8.963, 8.951 |
| Poland | 3.1% | -0.3% | -0.1% | 3.49, 3.494, 3.403, 3.424, 3.426, 3.428, 3.43, 3.437, 3.439, 3.442, 3.444, 3.393, 3.4, 3.402, 3.404, 3.407, 3.057, 2.991, 2.993, 3.139, 3.142 |
| Czech Republic | 2.3% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.032, 1.036, 0.996, 1.606, 1.613, 1.62, 1.586, 2.469, 2.474, 2.478, 2.483, 2.487, 2.501, 2.505, 2.51, 2.514, 2.519, 2.533, 2.537, 2.339, 2.335 |
| Hungary | 1.4% | 0.2% | -0.2% | 1.252, 1.255, 1.248, 1.336, 1.339, 1.279, 1.362, 1.372, 1.375, 1.378, 1.382, 1.385, 1.394, 1.398, 1.401, 1.404, 1.407, 1.417, 1.42, 1.423, 1.427 |
| South Africa | 1.1% | -0.1% | 0.3% | 1.063, 1.039, 0.96, 0.396, 0.422, 0.377, 0.405, 0.488, 0.516, 0.543, 0.793, 0.819, 0.897, 0.922, 0.898, 0.923, 0.949, 1.026, 1.052, 1.078, 1.104 |