Augur Underlying Growth Nowcast
Growth is one of the most important drivers of asset returns. An accurate and timely read of unfolding conditions is critical to investment success. The Augur Timely Underlying Growth Nowcast is an alternative, big-data-driven measure of economic activities. It uncovers the true underlying strength of the economy in a timely fashion.
High Signal-to-Noise Ratio
GDP is a noisy measure of growth, subject to high measurement errors.
Instead of nowcasting GDP, Augur has created an alternative growth
measure that unmasks the true underlying economic strength, allowing
investors to look through the noise.
Big Data In, Big Data Out
Augur’s indicators integrate a massive amount of traditional and
alternative data for a timely view of the economy. The outputs include
daily point estimates of growth by sector, as well as complete
historical vintages. The total database has 15 million time series and
over 5 billion data points.
Global Coverage
Augur’s indicators are available for 37 economies, representing 90% of
world GDP and nearly the entire investable universe. We apply the
same, consistent model for all countries over time to facilitate
comparability.
High Frequency
Updated daily, the indicators incorporate the latest data releases in
a timely fashion.
Long-Term Histories
Augur’s daily growth indicators start as early as 1961 for the US, the
longest high-frequency growth estimates in the industry. Daily
estimates are available for many developed economies since the 1970s
and for many emerging countries since the 1990s.
Point-in-Time Estimates
We use real-time unrevised data whenever possible, providing a solid
foundation for strategy backtests.