Growth is one of the most important drivers of asset returns. An accurate and timely read of unfolding conditions is critical to investment success. The Augur Labs Timely Underlying Growth Nowcast is an alternative, big-data-driven measure of economic activities; it uncovers the true underlying strength of the economy in a timely fashion.
Global Growth Nowcast as of 5/31/2023
| Underlying Growth | 1m Change | 3m Change | 1m History | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 2.7% | -0.4% | -0.5% | 3.107, 3.132, 3.356, 3.358, 3.321, 3.337, 3.371, 3.34, 3.324, 3.182, 3.168, 3.233, 3.182, 3.041, 3.013, 3.005, 2.982, 2.928, 2.946, 2.986, 2.702 |
| Developed World | 0.7% | -0.5% | -0.4% | 1.16, 1.146, 1.35, 1.352, 1.348, 1.336, 1.299, 1.272, 1.222, 1.156, 1.146, 1.367, 1.357, 1.331, 1.262, 1.238, 1.227, 1.117, 1.108, 1.112, 0.731 |
| United States | 0.3% | -0.4% | -0.9% | 0.657, 0.611, 1.119, 1.142, 1.129, 1.137, 1.047, 1.004, 0.776, 0.826, 0.801, 1.221, 1.227, 1.259, 1.112, 1.112, 1.245, 1.027, 1.033, 1.041, 0.278 |
| DW ex US | 1.1% | -0.5% | 0.0% | 1.531, 1.541, 1.521, 1.506, 1.51, 1.483, 1.486, 1.47, 1.552, 1.4, 1.4, 1.475, 1.453, 1.384, 1.373, 1.332, 1.214, 1.182, 1.163, 1.164, 1.065 |
| Euro Area | 0.8% | -0.8% | -1.0% | 1.582, 1.531, 1.415, 1.37, 1.37, 1.307, 1.309, 1.31, 1.31, 1.249, 1.131, 1.12, 1.108, 1.128, 1.103, 1.014, 0.858, 0.757, 0.725, 0.751, 0.757 |
| Core | 0.5% | -1.2% | -1.3% | 1.619, 1.38, 1.127, 1.057, 1.057, 1.0, 0.999, 0.999, 0.99, 0.89, 0.937, 0.934, 0.932, 0.902, 0.856, 0.708, 0.456, 0.449, 0.396, 0.48, 0.457 |
| Germany | 0.4% | -1.7% | -1.3% | 2.058, 1.577, 1.058, 0.914, 0.913, 0.913, 0.912, 0.911, 0.909, 0.825, 0.82, 0.814, 0.808, 0.75, 0.673, 0.392, 0.279, 0.258, 0.196, 0.393, 0.377 |
| France | 0.1% | -0.8% | -1.8% | 0.903, 0.886, 0.906, 0.904, 0.905, 0.775, 0.774, 0.774, 0.771, 0.771, 0.77, 0.769, 0.769, 0.826, 0.803, 0.804, 0.226, 0.239, 0.184, 0.166, 0.139 |
| Netherlands | 0.8% | -0.5% | -0.9% | 1.32, 1.32, 1.271, 1.262, 1.259, 1.17, 1.167, 1.165, 1.157, 0.612, 1.068, 1.069, 1.069, 0.965, 0.961, 0.956, 0.952, 0.947, 0.934, 0.829, 0.787 |
| Belgium | 2.2% | -0.4% | 0.5% | 2.585, 2.588, 2.554, 2.571, 2.576, 2.535, 2.541, 2.547, 2.454, 2.46, 2.466, 2.472, 2.478, 2.319, 2.317, 2.151, 2.142, 2.133, 2.107, 2.176, 2.17 |
| Periphery | 1.3% | -0.2% | -0.6% | 1.518, 1.789, 1.906, 1.902, 1.903, 1.831, 1.836, 1.84, 1.855, 1.859, 1.46, 1.436, 1.407, 1.512, 1.524, 1.534, 1.543, 1.282, 1.284, 1.212, 1.265 |
| Italy | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.8% | 0.106, 0.488, 0.642, 0.681, 0.694, 0.528, 0.543, 0.559, 0.605, 0.621, -0.239, -0.223, -0.207, 0.046, 0.072, 0.097, 0.122, -0.437, -0.425, -0.412, -0.261 |
| Spain | 2.5% | -0.3% | -0.5% | 2.872, 2.981, 3.122, 3.105, 3.1, 3.094, 3.089, 3.083, 3.067, 3.061, 3.056, 2.964, 2.859, 2.839, 2.844, 2.839, 2.834, 2.829, 2.814, 2.56, 2.545 |
| Ireland | 2.0% | 0.6% | -0.9% | 1.428, 2.164, 2.06, 2.05, 2.011, 2.007, 2.004, 2.001, 1.992, 1.988, 1.985, 1.982, 1.979, 1.923, 1.916, 1.909, 1.901, 1.894, 1.919, 1.912, 1.992 |
| Portugal | 3.0% | -0.3% | 0.6% | 3.291, 3.293, 3.277, 3.275, 3.274, 3.333, 3.332, 3.331, 3.329, 3.328, 3.327, 3.326, 3.325, 3.335, 3.334, 3.334, 3.334, 3.334, 3.333, 3.026, 3.011 |
| Greece | 3.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 3.091, 3.076, 3.201, 2.939, 2.935, 2.987, 2.983, 2.979, 2.966, 2.962, 2.958, 2.954, 2.95, 2.919, 2.915, 2.91, 2.905, 2.9, 2.885, 3.384, 3.094 |
| Japan | 2.3% | 0.3% | 3.7% | 1.973, 1.961, 2.233, 2.278, 2.291, 2.306, 2.321, 2.335, 2.38, 2.395, 2.773, 3.236, 3.155, 2.74, 2.841, 2.846, 2.85, 2.855, 2.87, 2.779, 2.269 |
| United Kingdom | -0.1% | -0.8% | -0.6% | 0.686, 0.775, 0.803, 0.811, 0.814, 0.817, 0.82, 0.814, 0.822, -0.004, -0.003, -0.002, 0.07, 0.07, -0.064, 0.001, -0.077, -0.083, -0.089, -0.091, -0.093 |
| Canada | 2.2% | 0.5% | -0.6% | 1.735, 2.1, 1.965, 1.989, 1.997, 2.096, 2.074, 1.806, 2.98, 2.649, 2.529, 2.576, 2.445, 2.466, 2.45, 2.433, 1.962, 2.349, 2.316, 2.305, 2.193 |
| Australia | 1.6% | -0.8% | -0.3% | 2.054, 2.184, 2.178, 2.152, 2.15, 2.148, 2.145, 2.143, 2.136, 1.951, 1.935, 1.729, 1.714, 1.689, 1.675, 1.661, 1.647, 1.612, 1.57, 1.57, 1.565 |
| Switzerland | 0.4% | -1.1% | -1.2% | 1.499, 1.443, 1.48, 1.495, 1.218, 1.227, 0.728, 0.729, 0.73, 0.446, 0.422, 0.414, 0.406, 0.398, 0.39, 0.367, 0.359, 0.351, 0.343, 0.335, 0.37 |
| Sweden | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.273, 0.311, 0.292, 0.332, 0.346, 0.238, 0.252, 0.266, 0.309, 0.323, 0.338, 0.352, 0.366, -0.039, -0.045, -0.051, 0.063, 0.132, 0.113, 0.352, 0.355 |
| Norway | 1.6% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 1.336, 1.337, 1.451, 1.406, 1.391, 1.376, 1.362, 1.209, 1.088, 1.073, 1.057, 1.042, 1.026, 1.563, 1.574, 1.585, 1.596, 1.492, 1.53, 1.543, 1.555 |
| New Zealand | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.334, 0.247, 0.242, 0.269, 0.305, 0.314, 0.323, 0.273, 0.299, 0.308, 0.317, 0.326, 0.333, 0.256, 0.26, 0.143, 0.148, -0.062, -0.073, -0.077, 0.158 |
| Emerging Markets | 4.3% | -0.3% | -0.6% | 4.725, 4.781, 5.022, 5.025, 4.96, 4.998, 5.093, 5.058, 5.069, 4.864, 4.848, 4.783, 4.699, 4.462, 4.467, 4.472, 4.44, 4.432, 4.472, 4.543, 4.339 |
| China | 4.3% | -1.2% | -3.4% | 5.57, 5.71, 6.225, 6.24, 6.014, 6.026, 6.115, 6.149, 6.16, 5.631, 5.645, 5.66, 5.704, 5.127, 5.115, 5.103, 5.091, 5.029, 5.017, 5.005, 4.347 |
| EM ex China | 4.3% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 4.179, 4.18, 4.245, 4.24, 4.278, 4.334, 4.432, 4.354, 4.365, 4.369, 4.333, 4.215, 4.049, 4.031, 4.049, 4.064, 4.02, 4.046, 4.12, 4.245, 4.334 |
| EM Asia ex China | 5.0% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 4.756, 4.771, 4.795, 4.835, 4.871, 4.887, 4.919, 4.798, 4.853, 4.877, 4.842, 4.882, 4.615, 4.516, 4.553, 4.581, 4.634, 4.698, 4.854, 4.887, 4.987 |
| India | 6.9% | -0.1% | 1.1% | 7.272, 7.265, 6.712, 6.75, 6.763, 6.775, 6.788, 6.447, 6.551, 6.578, 6.604, 6.63, 6.657, 6.6, 6.621, 6.641, 6.661, 6.681, 6.742, 6.762, 6.863 |
| South Korea | 1.6% | -0.3% | -0.2% | 1.906, 1.883, 1.969, 1.966, 1.965, 1.992, 1.99, 1.989, 1.985, 1.984, 1.983, 1.982, 1.981, 1.493, 1.672, 1.777, 1.768, 1.758, 1.73, 1.721, 1.624 |
| Indonesia | 5.1% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 2.887, 2.985, 3.793, 4.012, 4.088, 4.104, 4.178, 4.252, 3.974, 4.056, 4.139, 4.221, 4.349, 4.449, 4.523, 4.597, 4.672, 4.746, 4.968, 5.042, 5.116 |
| Taiwan | 2.3% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.018, 0.119, 0.908, 0.798, 0.922, 1.046, 1.17, 1.294, 1.667, 1.791, 1.915, 2.04, 2.164, 1.313, 1.066, 1.199, 1.332, 1.842, 2.061, 2.188, 2.314 |
| Thailand | 3.9% | 1.2% | -1.4% | 2.73, 2.73, 3.218, 3.201, 3.195, 3.19, 3.321, 3.313, 3.954, 3.944, 3.934, 3.924, 3.914, 3.884, 3.874, 3.53, 3.525, 3.521, 3.508, 3.417, 3.946 |
| Malaysia | -0.4% | -3.8% | -0.5% | 3.347, 3.296, 3.245, 3.092, 3.311, 3.267, 3.23, 3.531, 3.396, 3.35, 3.305, 3.26, -3.451, -2.813, -2.601, -2.388, -1.829, -1.595, -0.895, -0.662, -0.428 |
| Philippines | 5.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 5.001, 5.01, 5.019, 5.046, 5.052, 5.062, 5.071, 5.081, 5.109, 4.989, 5.002, 5.015, 5.028, 5.068, 5.082, 5.095, 5.108, 5.122, 5.162, 5.175, 5.188 |
| Singapore | 4.0% | 0.5% | 2.4% | 3.169, 3.277, 5.416, 5.538, 5.579, 5.619, 5.66, 5.701, 5.823, 5.863, 3.592, 3.629, 3.666, 3.643, 3.674, 3.705, 3.692, 3.87, 3.95, 3.976, 4.003 |
| Hong Kong | 5.4% | 0.3% | 7.3% | 5.027, 4.926, 4.621, 4.504, 4.465, 4.382, 4.344, 4.285, 3.924, 3.89, 3.855, 4.238, 4.199, 3.643, 3.584, 3.525, 3.466, 3.407, 5.43, 5.394, 5.358 |
| Latin America | 1.9% | -1.2% | 2.7% | 3.051, 3.069, 3.275, 3.198, 3.298, 3.351, 3.342, 3.241, 3.222, 3.215, 3.25, 2.536, 2.469, 2.543, 2.552, 2.544, 2.145, 2.132, 2.137, 2.139, 1.894 |
| Brazil | 2.3% | 0.5% | 4.6% | 1.83, 2.062, 2.079, 1.938, 1.932, 2.053, 2.046, 2.044, 2.024, 2.017, 2.098, 2.09, 2.001, 2.505, 2.522, 2.539, 2.684, 2.706, 2.772, 2.794, 2.295 |
| Mexico | 1.8% | -0.6% | -0.9% | 2.406, 2.347, 3.971, 3.93, 3.951, 3.937, 3.923, 3.656, 3.628, 3.619, 3.609, 3.6, 3.529, 3.225, 3.205, 3.184, 1.942, 1.882, 1.82, 1.799, 1.778 |
| Argentina | 0.9% | -7.8% | 5.7% | 8.549, 8.083, 5.307, 5.348, 5.985, 5.987, 5.989, 5.99, 5.996, 5.998, 6.0, 1.263, 1.276, 0.943, 0.998, 0.948, 0.944, 0.939, 0.925, 0.92, 0.915 |
| EM Europe | 5.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 3.922, 3.887, 3.915, 3.858, 3.859, 4.014, 4.318, 4.349, 4.285, 4.253, 4.161, 4.134, 4.108, 4.226, 4.208, 4.214, 4.219, 4.191, 4.142, 4.586, 4.971 |
| Russia | 5.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 5.354, 5.267, 5.247, 5.064, 5.002, 4.941, 5.534, 5.467, 5.267, 5.2, 5.004, 4.939, 4.874, 4.908, 4.853, 4.799, 4.744, 4.689, 4.525, 4.47, 5.309 |
| Turkey | 6.7% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 2.988, 3.011, 3.085, 3.186, 3.22, 3.917, 3.936, 4.171, 4.211, 4.215, 4.229, 4.243, 4.257, 4.69, 4.721, 4.935, 4.976, 5.017, 5.139, 6.879, 6.74 |
| Poland | 3.1% | 0.6% | -0.2% | 2.536, 2.544, 2.518, 2.548, 2.558, 2.568, 2.578, 2.588, 2.737, 2.758, 2.767, 2.777, 2.786, 2.719, 2.722, 2.724, 2.873, 2.877, 2.888, 3.077, 3.086 |
| Czech Republic | -0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | -0.416, -0.408, -0.139, -0.072, 0.431, 0.451, 0.47, 0.49, 0.55, 0.57, 0.589, 0.609, 0.629, 0.653, 0.671, 0.224, 0.223, 0.222, 0.218, -0.117, -0.118 |
| Hungary | 2.5% | -0.2% | 0.2% | 2.716, 2.722, 2.974, 2.986, 2.852, 2.856, 2.86, 2.863, 2.875, 2.769, 2.773, 2.777, 2.782, 2.685, 2.685, 2.684, 2.683, 2.362, 2.355, 2.465, 2.466 |
| South Africa | 1.7% | -0.4% | 0.3% | 2.088, 2.02, 2.332, 2.336, 2.337, 2.338, 2.71, 2.708, 2.705, 2.704, 2.634, 2.634, 2.633, 2.393, 2.382, 2.37, 2.359, 2.347, 2.313, 2.301, 1.73 |