Growth is one of the most important drivers of asset returns. An accurate and timely read of unfolding conditions is critical to investment success. The Augur Labs Timely Underlying Growth Nowcast is an alternative, big-data-driven measure of economic activities; it uncovers the true underlying strength of the economy in a timely fashion.
Global Growth Nowcast as of 9/29/2023
| Underlying Growth | 1m Change | 3m Change | 1m History | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 2.6% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 2.644, 2.64, 2.619, 2.633, 2.625, 2.634, 2.646, 2.67, 2.684, 2.682, 2.671, 2.689, 2.686, 2.659, 2.588, 2.601, 2.644, 2.682, 2.646, 2.64, 2.61 |
| Developed World | 0.4% | -0.4% | 0.2% | 0.609, 0.641, 0.641, 0.649, 0.695, 0.705, 0.746, 0.788, 0.801, 0.799, 0.863, 0.881, 0.891, 0.761, 0.523, 0.531, 0.537, 0.558, 0.554, 0.522, 0.361 |
| United States | 1.0% | -1.1% | 1.0% | 1.582, 1.614, 1.624, 1.738, 1.868, 1.889, 1.951, 1.961, 1.982, 1.943, 2.087, 2.149, 2.157, 2.1, 1.495, 1.482, 1.444, 1.467, 1.457, 1.485, 0.951 |
| DW ex US | -0.1% | 0.0% | -0.4% | -0.108, -0.077, -0.085, -0.155, -0.17, -0.168, -0.143, -0.077, -0.071, -0.045, -0.04, -0.053, -0.043, -0.226, -0.194, -0.171, -0.132, -0.113, -0.113, -0.189, -0.074 |
| Euro Area | -0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.266, -0.242, -0.265, -0.366, -0.415, -0.405, -0.382, -0.385, -0.381, -0.377, -0.36, -0.348, -0.345, -0.384, -0.26, -0.222, -0.152, -0.144, -0.141, -0.283, -0.222 |
| Core | -0.5% | 0.3% | -0.2% | -0.803, -0.787, -0.764, -0.933, -0.888, -0.878, -0.89, -0.898, -0.896, -0.893, -0.882, -0.875, -0.872, -0.969, -0.786, -0.779, -0.682, -0.674, -0.677, -0.615, -0.516 |
| Germany | -1.3% | 0.4% | -0.2% | -1.662, -1.628, -1.572, -1.918, -1.938, -1.933, -1.919, -1.914, -1.91, -1.905, -1.9, -1.886, -1.881, -2.051, -1.829, -1.82, -1.643, -1.628, -1.613, -1.494, -1.284 |
| France | 0.2% | 0.0% | -0.4% | 0.194, 0.194, 0.18, 0.179, 0.269, 0.276, 0.271, 0.237, 0.236, 0.235, 0.234, 0.23, 0.229, 0.181, 0.293, 0.291, 0.284, 0.282, 0.245, 0.232, 0.229 |
| Netherlands | -0.2% | 0.3% | -0.2% | -0.473, -0.478, -0.479, -0.481, -0.298, -0.249, -0.534, -0.531, -0.528, -0.526, -0.523, -0.515, -0.513, -0.506, -0.232, -0.211, -0.18, -0.17, -0.16, -0.199, -0.232 |
| Belgium | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% | -0.147, -0.135, -0.132, -0.128, -0.076, -0.07, 0.143, 0.147, 0.151, 0.155, 0.296, 0.307, 0.31, 0.341, 0.446, 0.456, 0.61, 0.625, 0.639, 0.832, 0.852 |
| Periphery | 0.3% | -0.2% | 0.6% | 0.647, 0.684, 0.583, 0.597, 0.389, 0.399, 0.482, 0.489, 0.496, 0.502, 0.529, 0.547, 0.553, 0.611, 0.634, 0.725, 0.749, 0.757, 0.77, 0.282, 0.279 |
| Italy | -1.5% | -0.4% | 1.3% | -0.872, -0.837, -0.942, -0.928, -1.34, -1.327, -1.158, -1.148, -1.137, -1.126, -1.073, -1.046, -1.037, -0.919, -0.904, -0.89, -0.847, -0.832, -0.818, -1.506, -1.512 |
| Spain | 1.8% | -0.1% | 0.4% | 1.74, 1.791, 1.675, 1.68, 1.597, 1.584, 1.592, 1.595, 1.597, 1.6, 1.602, 1.61, 1.612, 1.669, 1.716, 1.965, 1.977, 1.98, 1.984, 1.838, 1.835 |
| Ireland | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.848, 1.891, 1.732, 1.642, 1.81, 1.825, 1.881, 1.9, 1.919, 1.937, 1.956, 2.013, 2.032, 1.791, 1.797, 1.804, 1.824, 1.83, 1.894, 1.9, 1.907 |
| Portugal | 1.9% | -0.6% | -0.8% | 2.438, 2.429, 2.426, 2.423, 2.406, 2.478, 2.471, 2.469, 2.466, 2.464, 2.461, 2.454, 2.452, 2.453, 2.451, 2.448, 2.442, 2.44, 2.437, 1.851, 1.859 |
| Greece | 1.5% | -1.2% | -2.0% | 2.814, 2.814, 2.814, 3.048, 3.012, 3.053, 3.031, 3.024, 3.016, 3.009, 3.002, 2.98, 2.973, 3.041, 3.038, 3.034, 3.024, 3.02, 3.017, 1.534, 1.531 |
| Japan | 0.2% | -0.1% | -0.5% | 0.304, 0.277, 0.262, 0.253, 0.361, 0.273, 0.312, 0.324, 0.337, 0.391, 0.439, 0.475, 0.487, -0.223, -0.272, -0.274, -0.292, -0.298, -0.304, -0.31, 0.22 |
| United Kingdom | -0.6% | 0.8% | -2.0% | -1.41, -1.398, -1.357, -1.362, -1.409, -1.406, -1.399, -0.792, -0.792, -0.788, -0.74, -0.727, -0.723, -0.735, -0.815, -0.731, -0.662, -0.657, -0.651, -0.646, -0.64 |
| Canada | 0.4% | -1.5% | -0.5% | 1.571, 1.625, 1.643, 1.443, 1.38, 1.564, 1.604, 1.618, 1.631, 1.765, 1.545, 1.102, 1.103, 0.888, 0.627, 0.598, 0.572, 0.818, 0.809, 0.8, 0.448 |
| Australia | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 1.553, 1.863, 1.906, 1.838, 1.873, 1.877, 1.888, 1.801, 1.799, 1.879, 1.876, 1.867, 1.864, 1.831, 1.826, 1.822, 1.808, 1.804, 1.799, 1.787, 1.783 |
| Switzerland | -0.7% | 0.6% | -0.1% | -1.263, -1.111, -1.107, -1.103, -1.177, -1.161, -1.111, -1.095, -1.056, -1.039, -1.022, -0.973, -0.696, -1.004, -0.999, -0.995, -0.98, -0.976, -0.91, -0.903, -0.665 |
| Sweden | -1.8% | -0.6% | -2.2% | -1.104, -1.12, -1.169, -1.174, -1.21, -1.177, -1.206, -1.216, -1.226, -1.236, -1.246, -1.275, -1.285, -1.619, -1.626, -1.632, -1.65, -1.656, -1.75, -1.772, -1.784 |
| Norway | 0.7% | -0.1% | 0.1% | 0.687, 0.74, 0.758, 0.776, 0.665, 0.679, 0.719, 0.733, 0.746, 0.76, 0.455, 0.49, 0.501, 0.584, 0.599, 0.614, 0.66, 0.675, 0.69, 0.684, 0.7 |
| New Zealand | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.6% | -0.134, -0.105, -0.095, 0.056, 0.206, 0.217, 0.248, 0.35, 0.36, 0.37, 0.25, 0.28, 0.289, 0.277, 0.459, -0.004, -0.052, -0.068, -0.084, -0.004, -0.095 |
| Emerging Markets | 4.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 4.334, 4.301, 4.262, 4.281, 4.228, 4.236, 4.224, 4.233, 4.248, 4.247, 4.173, 4.19, 4.178, 4.236, 4.304, 4.32, 4.395, 4.447, 4.383, 4.399, 4.478 |
| China | 5.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 5.477, 5.501, 5.364, 5.389, 4.853, 4.844, 4.931, 4.927, 4.901, 4.898, 4.802, 4.801, 4.799, 5.233, 5.253, 5.315, 5.335, 5.356, 5.376, 5.397, 5.417 |
| EM ex China | 3.9% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 3.595, 3.526, 3.549, 3.566, 3.824, 3.843, 3.768, 3.785, 3.826, 3.826, 3.767, 3.796, 3.776, 3.592, 3.69, 3.677, 3.787, 3.859, 3.742, 3.753, 3.872 |
| EM Asia ex China | 4.9% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 4.806, 4.831, 4.832, 4.841, 4.748, 4.777, 4.797, 4.821, 4.88, 4.897, 4.772, 4.805, 4.773, 4.677, 4.687, 4.664, 4.712, 4.662, 4.644, 4.652, 4.894 |
| India | 7.6% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 6.841, 6.806, 6.761, 6.75, 6.902, 6.892, 6.863, 6.886, 6.875, 6.865, 6.876, 6.845, 6.834, 7.056, 7.057, 7.059, 7.062, 7.063, 7.064, 7.065, 7.638 |
| South Korea | 1.3% | 0.5% | -2.1% | 1.047, 1.202, 1.261, 1.313, 1.205, 1.234, 1.321, 1.35, 1.807, 1.831, 1.856, 1.93, 1.955, 1.627, 1.634, 1.641, 1.662, 1.325, 1.282, 1.275, 1.267 |
| Indonesia | 3.2% | -1.7% | 1.2% | 5.045, 5.106, 5.126, 5.146, 4.414, 4.459, 4.549, 4.612, 4.675, 4.738, 3.904, 4.137, 4.214, 3.034, 3.049, 3.064, 3.108, 3.122, 3.137, 3.152, 3.166 |
| Taiwan | 2.9% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 2.766, 2.816, 2.833, 2.85, 2.496, 3.051, 2.996, 2.977, 2.959, 2.94, 2.922, 2.867, 2.848, 2.798, 2.823, 2.892, 3.261, 3.271, 2.895, 2.891, 2.886 |
| Thailand | 1.9% | -0.8% | -2.3% | 2.338, 2.368, 2.375, 2.385, 2.395, 2.405, 2.436, 2.446, 2.456, 2.595, 2.603, 2.627, 2.636, 2.644, 2.652, 2.111, 2.162, 2.179, 2.196, 2.213, 1.935 |
| Malaysia | 2.2% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.641, 1.737, 1.769, 1.801, 1.834, 1.864, 2.243, 2.281, 2.32, 2.358, 2.397, 2.513, 1.417, 1.5, 1.583, 1.667, 1.87, 1.951, 2.031, 2.112, 2.193 |
| Philippines | 5.5% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 4.968, 4.999, 5.009, 5.02, 5.348, 5.105, 5.132, 5.142, 5.151, 5.16, 5.169, 5.196, 5.433, 5.435, 5.437, 5.439, 5.446, 5.448, 5.45, 5.452, 5.454 |
| Singapore | 3.5% | -1.0% | 2.4% | 4.548, 4.574, 4.603, 4.657, 3.923, 3.909, 3.866, 3.852, 3.838, 3.809, 3.795, 3.718, 3.704, 4.144, 4.152, 4.161, 4.187, 3.433, 3.457, 3.481, 3.505 |
| Hong Kong | 0.9% | 0.5% | 3.3% | 0.35, 0.384, 0.697, 0.705, 0.503, 0.465, 0.114, 0.079, 0.077, 0.041, 0.167, 0.053, -0.087, 0.861, 0.877, 0.893, 0.94, 1.039, 1.055, 1.07, 0.883 |
| Latin America | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.414, 1.502, 1.508, 1.526, 2.27, 2.274, 2.29, 2.292, 2.295, 2.221, 2.253, 2.243, 2.206, 2.303, 2.474, 2.473, 2.501, 3.02, 2.583, 2.604, 2.604 |
| Brazil | 2.6% | -0.2% | 0.9% | 2.886, 2.915, 2.579, 2.59, 2.555, 2.56, 2.574, 2.578, 2.583, 2.426, 2.492, 2.47, 2.488, 2.578, 2.545, 2.542, 2.594, 2.594, 2.594, 2.593, 2.593 |
| Mexico | 2.8% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.776, 2.02, 2.152, 2.208, 3.896, 3.887, 3.88, 3.87, 3.86, 3.85, 3.84, 3.811, 3.801, 3.884, 3.92, 3.915, 3.898, 3.892, 2.729, 2.779, 2.775 |
| Argentina | 2.2% | 6.3% | 1.0% | -4.167, -4.284, -3.512, -3.57, -2.731, -2.703, -2.621, -2.593, -2.565, -2.538, -2.51, -2.428, -2.711, -2.557, -1.402, -1.382, -1.321, 2.169, 2.182, 2.195, 2.209 |
| EM Europe | 2.8% | 0.2% | -0.8% | 2.694, 2.294, 2.367, 2.403, 3.049, 3.064, 2.704, 2.722, 2.757, 2.778, 2.799, 2.861, 2.882, 2.246, 2.499, 2.501, 2.833, 2.847, 2.74, 2.756, 2.762 |
| Russia | 3.5% | 0.0% | -2.1% | 3.671, 3.647, 3.827, 4.005, 4.914, 4.922, 4.106, 4.123, 4.14, 4.157, 4.175, 4.226, 4.244, 3.769, 3.762, 3.754, 3.732, 3.725, 3.474, 3.467, 3.459 |
| Turkey | 2.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 2.224, 0.724, 0.651, 0.577, 1.314, 1.357, 1.526, 1.551, 1.59, 1.63, 1.67, 1.788, 1.828, 0.321, 1.295, 1.311, 2.595, 2.658, 2.721, 2.784, 2.847 |
| Poland | 1.8% | -0.2% | -0.7% | 1.724, 1.738, 1.743, 1.625, 1.581, 1.587, 1.604, 1.61, 1.714, 1.72, 1.725, 1.742, 1.748, 1.707, 1.71, 1.713, 1.741, 1.744, 1.748, 1.754, 1.757 |
| Czech Republic | 0.1% | -0.1% | 1.5% | 0.305, 0.358, 0.375, 0.043, -0.083, -0.067, -0.017, -0.0, 0.016, 0.033, 0.049, 0.099, 0.116, 0.082, 0.096, 0.11, 0.129, 0.142, 0.155, 0.168, 0.065 |
| Hungary | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.8% | -0.017, 0.017, 0.029, 0.041, 0.294, 0.249, 0.259, 0.263, 0.267, 0.27, 0.274, 0.285, 0.288, 0.413, 0.423, 0.433, 0.462, 0.471, 0.481, 0.535, 0.474 |
| South Africa | 1.2% | -0.4% | 0.5% | 1.599, 1.466, 1.651, 1.605, 2.313, 2.282, 2.14, 2.11, 2.08, 2.035, 2.005, 1.915, 1.885, 2.063, 2.044, 2.025, 1.968, 1.949, 1.93, 1.911, 1.17 |