Growth is one of the most important drivers of asset returns. An accurate and timely read of unfolding conditions is critical to investment success. The Augur Labs Timely Underlying Growth Nowcast is an alternative, big-data-driven measure of economic activities; it uncovers the true underlying strength of the economy in a timely fashion.
| Underlying Growth | 1m Change | 3m Change | 1m History | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 3.0% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 2.56, 2.501, 3.108, 3.034, 3.097, 3.122, 3.298, 3.303, 3.286, 3.258, 3.284, 3.288, 3.002, 2.956, 2.882, 2.87, 2.921, 2.907, 2.891, 2.917, 2.975 |
| Developed World | 1.1% | -0.1% | 1.4% | 1.27, 1.115, 1.144, 1.137, 1.104, 1.098, 1.261, 1.283, 1.225, 1.156, 1.142, 1.181, 1.11, 1.182, 1.11, 1.088, 1.032, 1.018, 1.022, 1.121, 1.126 |
| United States | 1.1% | -0.4% | 2.2% | 1.39, 1.241, 1.255, 1.268, 1.213, 1.196, 1.311, 1.369, 1.241, 1.118, 1.061, 1.053, 0.901, 1.016, 0.935, 0.853, 0.888, 0.864, 0.858, 1.1, 1.062 |
| DW ex US | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 1.181, 1.022, 1.062, 1.04, 1.023, 1.026, 1.224, 1.22, 1.214, 1.184, 1.201, 1.275, 1.264, 1.304, 1.239, 1.26, 1.137, 1.132, 1.143, 1.136, 1.174 |
| Euro Area | 1.8% | -0.1% | 0.8% | 1.944, 1.76, 1.806, 1.817, 1.784, 1.757, 2.069, 2.091, 2.091, 2.062, 2.061, 2.033, 1.991, 1.968, 1.839, 1.843, 1.736, 1.75, 1.747, 1.73, 1.802 |
| Core | 1.7% | -0.5% | 0.8% | 2.207, 1.934, 1.87, 1.867, 1.761, 1.746, 1.854, 1.888, 1.889, 1.841, 1.845, 1.846, 1.778, 1.799, 1.801, 1.806, 1.618, 1.639, 1.633, 1.607, 1.715 |
| Germany | 1.4% | -1.2% | 0.6% | 2.618, 2.006, 1.896, 1.889, 1.681, 1.653, 1.743, 1.859, 1.857, 1.856, 1.85, 1.849, 1.847, 1.845, 1.843, 1.838, 1.464, 1.444, 1.424, 1.278, 1.434 |
| France | 2.0% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 1.926, 1.937, 1.925, 1.927, 1.911, 1.906, 1.999, 1.932, 1.938, 1.871, 1.887, 1.893, 1.898, 1.904, 1.909, 1.926, 1.876, 1.879, 1.882, 1.911, 1.975 |
| Netherlands | 2.5% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.672, 1.759, 1.687, 1.685, 1.683, 1.677, 1.917, 1.918, 1.918, 1.83, 1.833, 1.834, 1.835, 2.015, 2.017, 2.022, 2.072, 2.384, 2.401, 2.459, 2.51 |
| Belgium | 1.1% | -0.4% | 1.0% | 1.502, 1.678, 1.687, 1.696, 1.704, 1.714, 1.825, 1.827, 1.829, 1.594, 1.604, 1.607, 0.544, 0.552, 0.56, 0.584, 0.665, 0.599, 0.607, 1.052, 1.131 |
| Periphery | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.496, 1.464, 1.699, 1.732, 1.824, 1.776, 2.435, 2.436, 2.435, 2.439, 2.429, 2.351, 2.352, 2.256, 1.903, 1.906, 1.938, 1.94, 1.943, 1.94, 1.948 |
| Italy | 0.9% | 0.6% | -0.5% | 0.33, 0.289, 0.631, 0.563, 0.533, 0.423, 1.821, 1.819, 1.814, 1.81, 1.798, 1.627, 1.626, 1.624, 0.857, 0.855, 0.923, 0.926, 0.928, 0.931, 0.938 |
| Spain | 2.7% | -0.1% | 1.3% | 2.729, 2.728, 2.822, 2.927, 3.043, 3.038, 2.954, 2.956, 2.958, 3.003, 3.009, 3.01, 3.012, 2.744, 2.747, 2.756, 2.71, 2.71, 2.709, 2.695, 2.697 |
| Ireland | 3.1% | 1.5% | 3.6% | 1.58, 1.488, 2.054, 2.07, 2.906, 2.958, 2.908, 2.914, 2.92, 2.927, 2.945, 2.952, 2.958, 2.891, 2.897, 2.917, 3.036, 3.048, 3.061, 3.073, 3.111 |
| Portugal | 2.5% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 2.598, 2.574, 2.39, 2.387, 2.384, 2.375, 2.495, 2.501, 2.507, 2.513, 2.421, 2.427, 2.433, 2.439, 2.445, 2.463, 2.461, 2.467, 2.473, 2.478, 2.495 |
| Greece | 3.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.305, 2.239, 2.442, 2.944, 2.945, 2.95, 3.636, 3.63, 3.623, 3.439, 3.421, 3.415, 3.409, 3.403, 3.397, 3.379, 3.485, 3.484, 3.483, 3.483, 3.48 |
| Japan | -0.9% | 0.3% | 0.9% | -1.183, -1.482, -1.332, -1.482, -1.408, -1.408, -1.466, -1.445, -1.504, -1.481, -1.42, -1.399, -1.379, -1.218, -1.115, -1.049, -1.12, -1.103, -1.085, -0.989, -0.927 |
| United Kingdom | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.413, 0.435, 0.45, 0.459, 0.476, 0.682, 0.754, 0.762, 0.77, 0.49, 0.514, 1.252, 1.258, 1.264, 1.269, 1.286, 1.337, 1.229, 1.231, 1.26, 1.225 |
| Canada | 2.1% | -1.0% | 0.9% | 3.063, 2.963, 2.91, 2.884, 2.774, 2.634, 3.208, 2.886, 2.893, 3.049, 3.067, 3.29, 3.35, 3.354, 3.1, 3.155, 2.427, 2.381, 2.517, 2.21, 2.074 |
| Australia | 1.7% | -0.2% | -0.4% | 1.868, 1.902, 1.831, 1.891, 1.891, 1.92, 1.747, 1.751, 1.754, 1.758, 1.768, 1.524, 1.492, 1.915, 1.913, 1.91, 1.732, 1.723, 1.713, 1.704, 1.675 |
| Switzerland | 1.8% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 1.626, 1.822, 1.571, 1.588, 1.604, 1.655, 1.911, 1.92, 1.93, 1.94, 1.969, 1.978, 1.988, 1.997, 2.007, 2.036, 1.763, 1.768, 1.773, 1.778, 1.792 |
| Sweden | -0.0% | -0.5% | 1.6% | 0.567, 0.159, 0.08, 0.079, -0.146, -0.147, -0.053, -0.043, 0.055, 0.064, 0.092, 0.101, 0.111, 0.12, 0.029, 0.058, -0.089, -0.087, -0.085, -0.083, -0.049 |
| Norway | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.413, 0.416, 0.295, 0.296, 0.297, 0.298, 0.376, 0.389, 0.403, 0.416, 0.456, 0.47, 0.778, 0.789, 0.799, 0.831, 1.35, 1.385, 1.42, 1.455, 1.56 |
| New Zealand | -0.8% | -0.6% | 1.1% | -0.131, -0.046, -0.035, -0.228, -0.773, -0.742, -0.756, -0.746, -0.709, -0.448, -0.42, -0.457, -0.448, -0.468, -0.459, -0.43, -0.705, -0.803, -0.801, -0.8, -0.796 |
| Emerging Markets | 4.5% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 3.632, 3.653, 4.739, 4.609, 4.753, 4.804, 4.99, 4.981, 4.998, 5.004, 5.063, 5.038, 4.574, 4.429, 4.353, 4.35, 4.49, 4.476, 4.444, 4.409, 4.511 |
| China | 6.6% | 0.8% | 3.5% | 5.864, 5.888, 7.509, 7.54, 7.736, 7.766, 8.113, 8.075, 8.037, 7.994, 8.206, 8.165, 6.772, 6.41, 6.287, 6.246, 6.705, 6.688, 6.67, 6.619, 6.601 |
| EM ex China | 3.2% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.189, 2.208, 2.95, 2.715, 2.826, 2.889, 2.972, 2.982, 3.035, 3.072, 3.031, 3.016, 3.153, 3.149, 3.104, 3.124, 3.058, 3.047, 3.005, 2.982, 3.161 |
| EM Asia ex China | 4.6% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 3.545, 3.585, 4.021, 4.01, 4.098, 4.119, 3.96, 3.967, 4.001, 4.033, 4.034, 4.02, 4.292, 4.316, 4.255, 4.361, 4.363, 4.364, 4.328, 4.305, 4.598 |
| India | 6.9% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 5.408, 5.495, 5.588, 5.582, 5.768, 5.745, 6.388, 6.371, 6.355, 6.438, 6.38, 6.361, 6.473, 6.454, 6.435, 6.377, 6.879, 6.884, 6.89, 6.895, 6.912 |
| South Korea | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | -0.003, -0.005, 1.762, 1.794, 1.843, 1.989, 1.789, 1.806, 1.824, 1.841, 1.894, 1.912, 2.512, 2.524, 2.536, 2.572, 3.098, 3.135, 3.171, 3.208, 3.317 |
| Indonesia | 1.8% | -1.7% | -3.4% | 3.521, 3.493, 3.546, 3.56, 3.573, 3.613, 2.078, 2.167, 2.242, 2.209, 2.482, 2.573, 3.411, 3.502, 3.592, 3.864, 1.857, 1.847, 1.838, 1.829, 1.801 |
| Taiwan | -0.4% | -1.3% | 3.4% | 0.863, 0.83, 1.698, 1.7, 1.701, 1.707, -0.612, -0.68, -0.748, -0.815, -1.019, -1.087, -1.155, -1.222, -1.29, -1.707, -0.321, -0.302, -0.932, -0.753, -0.367 |
| Thailand | 4.6% | 1.0% | 6.5% | 3.54, 3.604, 5.57, 5.339, 5.311, 5.227, 5.204, 5.176, 5.195, 5.166, 5.08, 5.051, 5.022, 4.994, 4.965, 4.879, 4.85, 4.821, 4.793, 4.764, 4.578 |
| Malaysia | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | -0.042, 0.025, 0.047, 0.069, 0.091, 0.157, 0.179, 0.201, 0.237, 0.26, -0.042, -0.027, -0.011, 0.004, 0.019, 2.357, 2.282, 2.206, 2.13, 1.838, 1.57 |
| Philippines | 5.3% | 0.2% | -0.8% | 5.066, 5.065, 5.045, 5.052, 5.06, 5.083, 5.09, 5.098, 5.645, 5.649, 5.662, 5.222, 5.157, 5.166, 5.174, 5.2, 5.208, 5.217, 5.225, 5.234, 5.259 |
| Singapore | 0.2% | -2.5% | 0.8% | 2.605, 2.602, 2.631, 2.758, 1.641, 1.753, 2.253, 2.29, 2.327, 2.364, 2.475, 2.512, 2.596, 2.632, 0.361, 0.46, 0.657, 0.698, 0.738, -0.032, 0.161 |
| Hong Kong | 8.4% | 7.3% | 9.1% | -3.186, -3.182, -3.084, -3.238, -1.985, -1.728, -4.039, -3.981, -3.924, -3.866, -3.694, -3.604, -2.719, -1.839, -1.805, -1.705, -3.337, -3.383, -3.429, -3.475, 8.442 |
| Latin America | -0.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | -1.443, -1.458, -1.136, -1.08, -0.816, -0.832, 0.024, 0.116, 0.379, 0.344, 0.353, 0.354, 0.356, 0.357, 0.358, 0.362, -0.332, -0.352, -0.239, -0.263, -0.289 |
| Brazil | -1.5% | 1.1% | -0.1% | -2.522, -2.511, -2.493, -2.399, -2.343, -2.427, -2.412, -2.29, -1.73, -1.801, -1.778, -1.771, -1.763, -1.755, -1.748, -1.725, -1.777, -1.773, -1.77, -1.765, -1.489 |
| Mexico | 2.1% | -0.3% | 1.3% | 2.043, 2.033, 2.797, 2.758, 2.675, 2.576, 2.537, 2.508, 2.479, 2.45, 2.378, 2.349, 2.32, 2.291, 2.262, 2.175, 2.353, 2.334, 2.428, 2.406, 2.138 |
| Argentina | -2.6% | 3.8% | -0.6% | -6.816, -6.924, -6.749, -6.575, -4.782, -4.367, 1.407, 1.713, 1.771, 1.829, 2.002, 2.06, 2.118, 2.176, 2.234, 2.407, -2.524, -2.624, -2.112, -2.236, -2.608 |
| EM Europe | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 1.871, 1.903, 3.801, 2.806, 2.858, 3.084, 3.171, 3.123, 3.061, 3.168, 2.987, 2.937, 2.877, 2.802, 2.751, 2.587, 2.864, 2.829, 2.671, 2.643, 2.74 |
| Russia | 2.5% | 4.3% | 1.0% | -1.952, -1.987, 1.772, 1.787, 1.913, 2.427, 3.189, 3.199, 3.209, 3.22, 3.25, 3.26, 3.27, 3.28, 3.29, 3.32, 2.606, 2.581, 2.557, 2.533, 2.459 |
| Turkey | 3.8% | -3.7% | -1.9% | 8.803, 8.984, 8.997, 5.257, 5.212, 5.076, 3.892, 3.685, 3.477, 3.909, 3.145, 2.927, 2.708, 2.49, 2.272, 1.617, 4.028, 3.935, 3.443, 3.335, 3.824 |
| Poland | 2.9% | -0.4% | 0.6% | 3.184, 3.189, 3.242, 3.244, 3.247, 3.288, 3.263, 3.267, 3.271, 3.275, 3.288, 3.292, 3.232, 3.069, 3.074, 3.005, 2.995, 2.998, 2.877, 2.879, 2.887 |
| Czech Republic | 0.1% | 0.2% | -0.0% | -0.125, -0.134, -0.231, -0.626, -0.621, -0.603, -0.139, -0.139, -0.418, -0.613, -0.604, -0.587, -0.584, -0.581, -0.578, -0.568, -0.303, -0.287, -0.272, -0.006, 0.072 |
| Hungary | 2.0% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 2.071, 2.101, 2.301, 2.276, 2.278, 2.191, 2.07, 2.092, 2.114, 2.051, 2.116, 2.137, 2.159, 2.18, 2.202, 2.266, 2.006, 2.014, 2.022, 1.978, 2.003 |
| South Africa | 1.0% | -1.4% | -1.0% | 2.403, 2.024, 1.376, 1.38, 1.415, 1.425, 0.997, 1.009, 1.021, 1.033, 1.07, 1.272, 1.336, 1.348, 1.359, 1.392, 1.212, 1.214, 1.003, 0.996, 0.975 |