Growth is one of the most important drivers of asset returns. An accurate and timely read of unfolding conditions is critical to investment success. The Augur Labs Timely Underlying Growth Nowcast is an alternative, big-data-driven measure of economic activities; it uncovers the true underlying strength of the economy in a timely fashion.
Global Growth Nowcast as of 12/8/2023
Underlying Growth | 1m Change | 3m Change | 1m History | |
---|---|---|---|---|
World | 2.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 2.672, 2.703, 2.728, 2.686, 2.611, 2.614, 2.554, 2.556, 2.616, 2.64, 2.637, 2.618, 2.618, 2.617, 2.66, 2.719, 2.728, 2.75, 2.705, 2.696, 2.822 |
Developed World | 0.7% | 0.4% | -0.1% | 0.322, 0.328, 0.361, 0.347, 0.177, 0.185, 0.136, 0.131, 0.221, 0.27, 0.261, 0.278, 0.249, 0.173, 0.506, 0.447, 0.45, 0.469, 0.462, 0.465, 0.734 |
United States | 1.7% | 0.8% | -0.3% | 0.806, 0.799, 0.797, 0.865, 0.532, 0.548, 0.449, 0.44, 0.662, 0.663, 0.666, 0.669, 0.591, 0.544, 1.157, 0.967, 0.99, 0.99, 1.058, 1.062, 1.67 |
DW ex US | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.035, -0.02, 0.039, -0.036, -0.084, -0.083, -0.095, -0.097, -0.104, -0.02, -0.038, -0.011, -0.004, -0.101, 0.026, 0.063, 0.052, 0.084, 0.021, 0.026, 0.043 |
Euro Area | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.003, 0.033, 0.061, -0.002, 0.042, 0.051, 0.032, 0.045, 0.06, 0.201, 0.219, 0.262, 0.277, 0.206, 0.261, 0.25, 0.253, 0.317, 0.252, 0.246, 0.243 |
Core | -0.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | -0.526, -0.5, -0.462, -0.452, -0.389, -0.379, -0.35, -0.34, -0.319, -0.109, -0.083, -0.024, 0.005, -0.166, -0.099, -0.073, -0.104, -0.084, -0.18, -0.211, -0.212 |
Germany | -1.2% | 0.0% | 0.8% | -1.115, -1.072, -1.01, -0.992, -0.975, -0.957, -0.892, -0.873, -0.855, -0.658, -0.639, -0.553, -0.524, -0.989, -0.851, -0.809, -0.893, -0.857, -1.117, -1.163, -1.156 |
France | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.26, 0.263, 0.264, 0.265, 0.266, 0.267, 0.277, 0.278, 0.279, 0.608, 0.619, 0.651, 0.691, 0.704, 0.666, 0.679, 0.693, 0.695, 0.746, 0.718, 0.724 |
Netherlands | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | -0.568, -0.543, -0.486, -0.478, 0.017, 0.026, 0.022, 0.03, 0.088, 0.098, 0.108, 0.137, 0.147, 0.322, 0.409, 0.417, 0.44, 0.448, 0.498, 0.503, 0.437 |
Belgium | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | -0.153, -0.134, -0.127, -0.121, -0.114, -0.108, -0.2, -0.197, -0.113, -0.094, 0.089, 0.132, 0.146, 0.629, 0.675, 0.68, 0.716, 0.729, 0.852, 0.863, 0.874 |
Periphery | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.903, 0.938, 0.95, 0.763, 0.775, 0.781, 0.681, 0.699, 0.704, 0.729, 0.734, 0.749, 0.74, 0.838, 0.872, 0.8, 0.861, 1.001, 0.988, 1.022, 1.015 |
Italy | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.4% | -0.055, 0.016, 0.04, -0.366, -0.342, -0.318, -0.484, -0.472, -0.46, -0.447, -0.435, -0.399, -0.387, 0.14, 0.116, -0.177, -0.145, 0.077, 0.169, 0.243, 0.231 |
Spain | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 2.157, 2.161, 2.162, 2.163, 2.165, 2.149, 2.118, 2.156, 2.155, 2.213, 2.213, 2.211, 2.21, 1.828, 1.815, 1.928, 2.062, 2.101, 2.112, 2.109, 2.107 |
Ireland | 0.9% | 0.3% | -1.0% | 0.632, 0.653, 0.66, 0.66, 0.668, 0.675, 0.532, 0.531, 0.53, 0.529, 0.528, 0.525, 0.351, 0.35, 0.349, 0.669, 0.677, 0.985, 0.919, 0.931, 0.919 |
Portugal | 1.0% | 0.1% | -1.5% | 0.893, 0.885, 0.883, 0.88, 0.878, 0.875, 0.873, 0.87, 0.868, 0.866, 0.864, 0.857, 0.855, 0.877, 0.89, 0.888, 0.903, 0.902, 0.965, 0.964, 0.962 |
Greece | 1.1% | -0.6% | -1.9% | 1.669, 1.666, 1.665, 1.664, 1.663, 1.662, 1.636, 1.633, 1.631, 1.629, 1.627, 1.62, 1.618, 1.297, 2.167, 2.158, 2.15, 2.148, 1.104, 1.105, 1.121 |
Japan | -0.5% | -0.7% | -0.8% | 0.191, 0.172, 0.166, -0.104, -0.517, -0.526, -0.339, -0.338, -0.336, -0.335, -0.398, -0.4, -0.401, -0.694, -0.228, -0.024, -0.02, -0.04, -0.482, -0.48, -0.453 |
United Kingdom | -0.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | -1.236, -1.248, -0.863, -0.867, -0.872, -0.919, -0.933, -0.937, -1.106, -0.957, -0.752, -0.686, -0.68, -0.674, -0.668, -0.634, -0.622, -0.609, -0.618, -0.617, -0.616 |
Canada | 0.1% | 0.2% | -1.5% | -0.258, -0.21, -0.104, -0.001, 0.138, 0.153, -0.393, -0.408, -0.353, -0.434, -1.056, -1.091, -1.102, -1.114, -1.006, -1.163, -1.144, -1.138, -0.08, -0.076, 0.118 |
Australia | 1.1% | -0.9% | -0.7% | 1.98, 1.976, 1.879, 1.871, 1.806, 1.798, 1.816, 1.81, 1.805, 1.799, 1.793, 1.775, 1.75, 1.748, 1.733, 1.735, 1.405, 1.413, 1.026, 1.12, 1.123 |
Switzerland | -0.2% | 0.1% | 0.9% | -0.332, -0.328, -0.32, -0.318, -0.317, -0.181, -0.146, -0.458, -0.456, -0.454, -0.452, -0.447, -0.446, -0.398, -0.274, -0.236, -0.219, -0.213, -0.289, -0.193, -0.186 |
Sweden | -0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.049, -0.998, -0.981, -0.964, -0.947, -0.923, -1.092, -1.086, -1.08, -1.074, -1.068, -1.05, -1.044, -1.331, -1.331, -0.981, -0.952, -0.951, -0.56, -0.539, -0.464 |
Norway | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.585, 0.605, 0.611, 0.891, 0.899, 0.906, 0.936, 0.944, 0.952, 0.736, 0.744, 0.772, 0.78, 0.788, 0.796, 0.911, 0.848, 0.827, 0.748, 0.728, 0.708 |
New Zealand | 1.5% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0.869, 0.902, 0.912, 0.854, 0.865, 0.876, 0.875, 0.771, 0.78, 0.79, 0.891, 0.918, 0.928, 0.937, 1.126, 1.186, 1.21, 1.218, 1.538, 1.546, 1.503 |
Emerging Markets | 4.6% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 4.623, 4.676, 4.695, 4.629, 4.633, 4.632, 4.562, 4.57, 4.605, 4.609, 4.61, 4.562, 4.587, 4.647, 4.449, 4.606, 4.62, 4.645, 4.568, 4.548, 4.557 |
China | 5.0% | -0.2% | 0.0% | 5.208, 5.35, 5.364, 5.114, 5.13, 5.178, 4.972, 4.977, 4.982, 4.987, 5.002, 5.007, 5.012, 5.017, 4.558, 4.987, 5.0, 5.102, 5.022, 5.021, 5.036 |
EM ex China | 4.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 4.245, 4.241, 4.262, 4.315, 4.311, 4.279, 4.298, 4.307, 4.362, 4.364, 4.357, 4.275, 4.312, 4.408, 4.378, 4.36, 4.374, 4.35, 4.274, 4.242, 4.247 |
EM Asia ex China | 5.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 5.171, 5.172, 5.172, 5.215, 5.208, 5.27, 5.347, 5.369, 5.356, 5.362, 5.379, 5.384, 5.36, 5.359, 5.339, 5.325, 5.332, 5.334, 5.33, 5.306, 5.301 |
India | 7.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 7.017, 7.047, 7.057, 6.981, 6.989, 6.996, 6.709, 6.701, 6.693, 6.685, 6.677, 6.653, 6.645, 6.637, 6.752, 6.859, 6.853, 6.851, 7.146, 7.127, 7.108 |
South Korea | 2.5% | -0.8% | 1.1% | 3.307, 3.304, 3.302, 3.413, 3.411, 3.409, 3.405, 3.403, 3.401, 3.399, 3.397, 3.39, 3.269, 3.345, 2.779, 2.592, 2.584, 2.571, 2.496, 2.482, 2.467 |
Indonesia | 4.0% | 0.6% | -0.6% | 3.427, 3.369, 3.35, 3.741, 3.723, 3.705, 4.177, 4.185, 4.194, 4.202, 4.21, 4.235, 4.244, 4.252, 4.218, 4.231, 4.238, 4.24, 4.125, 4.075, 4.044 |
Taiwan | 3.4% | -0.7% | 0.4% | 4.087, 4.019, 3.997, 3.974, 3.952, 3.929, 4.76, 4.731, 4.635, 5.059, 5.013, 5.078, 5.04, 5.001, 4.963, 5.014, 5.004, 5.001, 3.21, 3.227, 3.405 |
Thailand | 2.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 2.526, 2.55, 2.558, 2.566, 2.574, 2.582, 2.606, 3.08, 3.087, 2.783, 2.795, 3.228, 3.233, 3.239, 3.387, 2.618, 2.651, 2.663, 2.674, 2.761, 2.771 |
Malaysia | 5.0% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.746, 2.776, 2.786, 2.796, 2.806, 3.437, 5.583, 5.497, 5.41, 5.324, 5.225, 4.964, 4.877, 4.79, 4.703, 4.735, 4.83, 4.862, 4.894, 4.926, 4.958 |
Philippines | 5.6% | -0.4% | 0.5% | 6.04, 6.011, 6.002, 5.992, 5.982, 5.973, 5.944, 5.935, 5.925, 5.916, 5.839, 5.819, 5.812, 5.806, 5.799, 5.866, 5.852, 5.847, 5.843, 5.605, 5.601 |
Singapore | 7.2% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 5.338, 5.303, 5.292, 5.281, 5.269, 6.438, 6.117, 6.094, 6.072, 6.356, 7.4, 7.268, 7.224, 7.18, 7.136, 7.129, 7.283, 6.972, 7.321, 7.277, 7.232 |
Hong Kong | 2.6% | -1.3% | 2.5% | 3.747, 3.785, 3.797, 3.835, 3.599, 3.612, 3.256, 3.249, 3.243, 3.237, 3.23, 3.097, 3.091, 3.086, 2.925, 2.921, 2.912, 3.406, 2.655, 2.626, 2.598 |
Latin America | 1.7% | -0.7% | -0.6% | 2.321, 2.348, 2.358, 2.367, 2.376, 2.031, 1.753, 1.75, 1.895, 1.886, 1.909, 1.446, 1.713, 1.713, 1.728, 1.699, 1.771, 1.77, 1.753, 1.685, 1.663 |
Brazil | 1.6% | 0.1% | -1.0% | 1.475, 1.495, 1.502, 1.508, 1.515, 1.396, 1.138, 1.13, 1.122, 1.113, 1.15, 1.131, 1.688, 1.683, 1.679, 1.54, 1.537, 1.682, 1.662, 1.587, 1.584 |
Mexico | 2.8% | -1.1% | -1.1% | 3.842, 4.018, 4.076, 4.135, 4.193, 4.252, 3.105, 3.098, 3.016, 3.009, 3.016, 1.784, 1.78, 1.776, 1.812, 1.912, 2.11, 2.107, 2.68, 2.715, 2.75 |
Argentina | -0.8% | -2.1% | 1.8% | 1.165, 0.844, 0.738, 0.631, 0.524, -1.56, 0.291, 0.318, 1.519, 1.502, 1.526, 1.598, 1.621, 1.645, 1.669, 1.666, 1.656, 1.197, -0.301, -0.604, -0.83 |
EM Europe | 4.1% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 3.928, 3.882, 3.961, 4.078, 4.068, 4.058, 4.172, 4.16, 4.305, 4.309, 4.219, 4.224, 4.225, 4.628, 4.537, 4.517, 4.5, 4.427, 4.048, 4.026, 4.078 |
Russia | 4.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 4.737, 4.566, 4.509, 4.702, 4.642, 4.582, 5.046, 5.019, 4.991, 4.964, 4.936, 4.854, 4.827, 5.646, 5.618, 5.762, 5.691, 5.533, 4.41, 4.323, 4.384 |
Turkey | 4.9% | 0.7% | 3.4% | 4.367, 4.502, 4.716, 4.785, 4.853, 4.921, 4.442, 4.476, 5.074, 5.133, 4.923, 5.077, 5.128, 5.044, 4.742, 4.066, 4.112, 4.127, 4.782, 4.858, 4.935 |
Poland | 3.4% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.493, 2.504, 2.741, 2.749, 2.757, 2.765, 2.763, 2.708, 2.714, 2.72, 2.685, 2.703, 2.709, 2.805, 2.893, 3.376, 3.408, 3.419, 3.415, 3.43, 3.445 |
Czech Republic | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.008, 0.024, 0.03, 0.035, 0.041, 0.046, 0.215, 0.228, 0.242, 0.255, 0.392, 0.447, 0.466, 0.484, 0.289, 0.312, 0.343, 0.354, 0.605, 0.598, 0.614 |
Hungary | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.043, 1.084, 1.53, 1.543, 1.556, 1.569, 1.536, 1.546, 1.555, 1.565, 0.947, 0.962, 0.967, 0.918, 0.921, 1.255, 1.27, 1.274, 1.255, 1.258, 1.205 |
South Africa | 1.6% | 0.7% | -0.5% | 0.886, 0.909, 0.916, 0.942, 0.95, 0.957, 0.985, 0.993, 1.001, 1.009, 1.016, 1.04, 1.047, 1.055, 1.045, 1.061, 1.072, 0.763, 1.669, 1.63, 1.62 |