Growth is one of the most important drivers of asset returns. An accurate and timely read of unfolding conditions is critical to investment success. The Augur Labs Timely Underlying Growth Nowcast is an alternative, big-data-driven measure of economic activities; it uncovers the true underlying strength of the economy in a timely fashion.
| Underlying Growth | 1m Change | 3m Change | 1m History | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 0.9% | -1.1% | -1.7% | 2.06, 2.08, 1.857, 1.691, 1.706, 1.706, 1.685, 1.634, 1.572, 1.556, 1.473, 1.493, 1.443, 1.413, 1.373, 1.358, 1.425, 1.364, 1.365, 0.88, 0.912 |
| Developed World | -0.6% | -0.9% | -1.2% | 0.28, 0.281, 0.237, 0.23, 0.232, 0.209, 0.179, 0.168, 0.154, 0.145, 0.088, 0.079, 0.048, 0.038, -0.089, -0.118, -0.045, -0.093, -0.132, -0.542, -0.62 |
| United States | -1.7% | -2.2% | -2.3% | 0.52, 0.468, 0.375, 0.358, 0.354, 0.292, 0.244, 0.205, 0.244, 0.253, -0.083, -0.11, -0.202, -0.251, -0.582, -0.624, -0.666, -0.791, -0.832, -1.647, -1.655 |
| DW ex US | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.4% | 0.103, 0.142, 0.135, 0.136, 0.142, 0.148, 0.131, 0.14, 0.087, 0.065, 0.214, 0.219, 0.233, 0.252, 0.275, 0.254, 0.414, 0.422, 0.385, 0.273, 0.143 |
| Euro Area | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | -0.098, -0.132, -0.086, -0.064, -0.055, -0.04, -0.029, 0.005, 0.032, 0.045, 0.167, 0.18, 0.213, 0.225, 0.251, 0.258, 0.569, 0.636, 0.682, 0.802, 0.755 |
| Core | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | -0.573, -0.576, -0.498, -0.466, -0.454, -0.408, -0.397, -0.361, -0.324, -0.309, -0.228, -0.213, -0.161, -0.134, -0.099, -0.096, -0.038, 0.012, 0.146, 0.193, 0.149 |
| Germany | -0.4% | 1.3% | 1.5% | -1.63, -1.646, -1.473, -1.453, -1.433, -1.413, -1.393, -1.332, -1.223, -1.197, -1.171, -1.144, -1.147, -1.125, -1.047, -0.856, -0.749, -0.656, -0.436, -0.355, -0.394 |
| France | 1.1% | -0.0% | 0.4% | 1.122, 1.135, 1.144, 1.208, 1.214, 1.208, 1.215, 1.235, 1.241, 1.248, 1.254, 1.261, 1.328, 1.337, 1.325, 1.069, 1.079, 1.078, 1.078, 1.074, 1.074 |
| Netherlands | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% | -0.958, -0.956, -0.986, -0.989, -0.991, -0.958, -0.961, -0.969, -1.099, -1.101, -0.497, -0.498, -0.213, -0.2, -0.187, -0.174, -0.16, -0.121, 0.229, 0.255, 0.018 |
| Belgium | -0.4% | 0.5% | -1.1% | -0.881, -0.878, -0.969, -0.951, -0.946, -0.43, -0.428, -0.423, -0.486, -0.484, -0.483, -0.481, -0.49, -0.307, -0.298, -0.364, -0.358, -0.34, -0.506, -0.412, -0.405 |
| Periphery | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.708, 0.623, 0.614, 0.62, 0.624, 0.586, 0.596, 0.627, 0.638, 0.648, 0.84, 0.85, 0.85, 0.836, 0.845, 0.86, 1.602, 1.696, 1.594, 1.836, 1.785 |
| Italy | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.1% | -0.908, -1.058, -0.969, -0.955, -0.933, -1.0, -0.977, -0.907, -0.884, -0.861, -0.449, -0.425, -0.453, -0.434, -0.415, -0.396, 1.209, 1.452, 1.559, 2.041, 2.016 |
| Spain | 1.8% | -0.4% | -0.7% | 2.498, 2.451, 2.349, 2.345, 2.341, 2.338, 2.334, 2.323, 2.319, 2.315, 2.317, 2.313, 2.334, 2.252, 2.25, 2.265, 2.263, 2.257, 1.809, 1.826, 1.82 |
| Ireland | -0.2% | -1.0% | -0.2% | 0.619, 0.623, 0.56, 0.575, 0.641, 0.656, 0.671, 0.716, 0.731, 0.746, 0.761, 0.776, 0.737, 0.799, 0.811, 0.822, 0.834, 0.624, 0.111, 0.263, -0.212 |
| Portugal | 1.2% | -0.0% | -0.9% | 1.193, 1.19, 1.156, 1.158, 1.01, 1.012, 1.014, 1.021, 1.023, 1.025, 1.027, 1.029, 0.986, 0.986, 0.985, 0.985, 0.985, 0.984, 1.132, 1.17, 1.169 |
| Greece | 3.2% | 0.7% | -0.2% | 2.841, 2.832, 2.685, 2.677, 2.669, 2.536, 2.528, 2.505, 2.497, 2.489, 2.482, 2.474, 2.674, 2.677, 2.68, 2.683, 2.686, 2.694, 3.249, 3.239, 3.24 |
| Japan | -2.0% | -2.1% | -3.9% | 0.08, 0.068, 0.02, 0.014, 0.006, -0.003, -0.012, -0.037, -0.325, -0.453, -0.182, -0.197, -0.101, -0.099, -0.098, -0.227, -0.231, -0.242, -0.536, -1.438, -1.964 |
| United Kingdom | -0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | -0.067, 0.129, 0.105, 0.103, 0.101, 0.099, 0.065, 0.059, -0.032, -0.03, -0.029, -0.004, 0.033, 0.038, 0.049, 0.06, 0.065, -0.09, -0.091, -0.092, -0.089 |
| Canada | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.236, 0.882, 0.516, 0.536, 0.556, 0.575, 0.328, 0.313, 0.287, 0.229, 0.623, 0.616, 0.323, 0.505, 0.652, 0.639, 0.626, 0.587, 0.625, 0.611, 0.632 |
| Australia | 2.3% | -0.3% | -1.0% | 2.722, 2.655, 2.7, 2.471, 2.457, 2.442, 2.427, 2.384, 2.424, 2.41, 2.633, 2.618, 2.553, 2.537, 2.52, 2.504, 2.487, 2.402, 2.386, 2.396, 2.274 |
| Switzerland | 0.3% | -0.5% | 0.1% | 0.816, 0.812, 0.911, 0.92, 0.928, 0.937, 0.945, 0.952, 0.961, 0.969, 0.849, 0.855, 0.545, 0.536, 0.526, 0.517, 0.507, 0.479, 0.513, 0.394, 0.328 |
| Sweden | -2.6% | -0.1% | -3.6% | -2.351, -2.348, -2.368, -2.372, -2.27, -2.275, -2.28, -2.295, -2.3, -2.304, -2.309, -2.496, -2.245, -2.237, -2.228, -2.22, -2.212, -2.188, -2.588, -2.584, -2.592 |
| Norway | 1.2% | -0.3% | -1.0% | 1.483, 1.484, 1.455, 1.453, 1.451, 1.45, 1.448, 1.443, 1.114, 1.114, 1.115, 1.332, 1.231, 1.227, 1.222, 1.218, 1.213, 1.174, 1.17, 1.166, 1.151 |
| New Zealand | 0.7% | -0.6% | -0.1% | 1.371, 1.375, 1.339, 1.343, 1.387, 1.391, 1.212, 1.222, 1.269, 1.273, 1.276, 1.279, 1.272, 1.365, 1.368, 1.372, 1.038, 0.995, 0.98, 0.721, 0.723 |
| Emerging Markets | 2.2% | -1.4% | -2.1% | 3.539, 3.575, 3.204, 2.905, 2.93, 2.95, 2.937, 2.851, 2.751, 2.727, 2.624, 2.668, 2.601, 2.555, 2.586, 2.584, 2.646, 2.574, 2.609, 2.061, 2.184 |
| China | 3.5% | -0.8% | -2.7% | 4.134, 4.216, 3.83, 3.861, 3.893, 3.924, 3.895, 3.754, 3.807, 3.84, 3.873, 3.972, 4.195, 4.237, 4.28, 4.322, 4.448, 4.49, 4.532, 3.134, 3.465 |
| EM ex China | 1.4% | -1.8% | -1.7% | 3.155, 3.16, 2.799, 2.287, 2.308, 2.32, 2.317, 2.268, 2.068, 2.009, 1.817, 1.825, 1.571, 1.468, 1.492, 1.46, 1.481, 1.336, 1.366, 1.367, 1.356 |
| EM Asia ex China | 2.3% | -1.5% | -1.9% | 3.882, 3.882, 3.362, 3.322, 3.336, 3.351, 3.446, 3.462, 3.086, 3.09, 2.742, 2.756, 2.589, 2.571, 2.582, 2.587, 2.622, 2.448, 2.476, 2.353, 2.271 |
| India | 5.2% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 5.343, 5.357, 5.389, 5.404, 5.418, 5.432, 5.636, 5.664, 4.891, 4.897, 4.903, 4.909, 5.089, 5.103, 5.117, 5.13, 5.144, 5.185, 5.199, 5.107, 5.239 |
| South Korea | -0.5% | -0.9% | -2.4% | 0.394, 0.406, 0.418, 0.427, 0.467, 0.475, 0.483, 0.508, 0.516, 0.524, 0.532, 0.54, 0.702, 0.488, 0.518, 0.523, 0.529, 0.545, 0.551, 0.143, -0.522 |
| Indonesia | -0.7% | -6.1% | -5.1% | 5.372, 5.298, 2.2, 2.163, 2.16, 2.149, 2.137, 2.172, 1.992, 1.986, 1.98, 1.973, 0.094, -0.001, -0.096, -0.191, -0.286, -0.57, -0.665, -0.76, -0.692 |
| Taiwan | -1.7% | 0.5% | -2.1% | -2.12, -2.035, -1.806, -2.766, -2.721, -2.676, -2.63, -2.494, -2.449, -2.403, -2.358, -2.313, -2.278, -2.177, -1.942, -1.875, -1.809, -1.912, -1.545, -1.49, -1.736 |
| Thailand | -2.6% | -3.1% | -5.3% | 0.546, 0.572, 0.651, 0.677, 0.704, 0.849, 0.874, 0.949, 0.975, 1.0, 1.025, 1.05, 1.289, 1.314, 1.338, 1.362, 1.387, -1.248, -1.177, -1.663, -2.621 |
| Malaysia | 0.8% | -3.8% | -6.9% | 4.509, 4.449, 4.271, 4.414, 4.36, 4.306, 4.29, 4.128, 4.074, 4.021, -2.222, -2.043, -1.505, -1.325, -1.146, -0.967, -0.223, 0.414, 0.626, 0.838, 0.797 |
| Philippines | 5.7% | -0.1% | 0.1% | 5.778, 5.653, 5.645, 5.793, 5.789, 5.785, 5.781, 5.769, 5.765, 5.761, 5.717, 5.714, 5.706, 5.703, 5.7, 5.698, 5.695, 5.686, 5.683, 5.681, 5.685 |
| Singapore | 1.4% | -1.3% | -2.8% | 2.761, 2.958, 3.646, 3.66, 3.674, 3.688, 3.702, 3.745, 3.759, 3.773, 1.209, 1.219, 1.339, 1.353, 1.121, 1.137, 1.293, 1.33, 1.342, 1.354, 1.4 |
| Hong Kong | 0.1% | -2.5% | -3.3% | 2.855, 2.87, 0.442, 0.419, 0.502, 0.477, 0.475, -0.019, -0.037, -0.055, 0.238, 0.217, 0.086, 0.086, 0.086, 0.086, 0.086, 0.085, 0.085, 0.085, 0.094 |
| Latin America | -0.6% | -2.1% | -2.9% | 1.604, 1.717, 1.671, 1.679, 1.762, 1.788, 1.495, 1.434, 1.434, 1.433, 1.433, 1.433, 0.48, -0.138, -0.056, -0.151, -0.155, -0.441, -0.572, -0.625, -0.61 |
| Brazil | 0.5% | -2.4% | -4.0% | 2.897, 3.125, 3.105, 2.962, 3.067, 3.053, 2.401, 2.06, 1.989, 1.918, 1.847, 1.775, 1.49, 1.415, 1.341, 1.185, 1.107, 0.873, 0.617, 0.541, 0.52 |
| Mexico | -0.8% | -2.0% | -0.3% | 1.168, 1.165, 0.319, 0.4, 0.482, 0.563, 0.598, 0.843, 0.925, 1.007, 1.089, 1.17, -0.529, -0.548, -0.559, -0.569, -0.445, -0.801, -0.79, -0.8, -0.782 |
| Argentina | -3.8% | -1.6% | -6.3% | -1.394, -1.354, 0.536, 0.837, 0.854, 0.871, 0.888, 0.939, 0.956, 0.973, 0.99, 1.007, -0.179, -4.025, -3.219, -3.335, -3.426, -3.698, -3.789, -3.88, -3.758 |
| EM Europe | 0.7% | -2.1% | -0.6% | 2.793, 2.73, 2.49, 0.444, 0.433, 0.355, 0.352, 0.156, 0.186, -0.068, -0.069, -0.069, -0.0, 0.09, 0.102, 0.032, 0.039, 0.054, 0.218, 0.615, 0.748 |
| Russia | -0.0% | -3.8% | -0.8% | 3.69, 3.644, 3.016, -1.065, -1.059, -1.053, -1.047, -1.028, -1.022, -1.518, -1.509, -1.499, -1.267, -1.245, -1.214, -1.191, -1.169, -1.101, -1.078, -0.463, -0.001 |
| Turkey | 1.5% | -1.4% | -0.7% | 2.747, 2.594, 2.909, 2.867, 2.825, 2.512, 2.488, 1.641, 1.618, 1.595, 1.572, 1.55, 1.267, 1.52, 1.5, 1.134, 1.103, 1.009, 1.553, 1.877, 1.506 |
| Poland | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.716, 1.717, 1.647, 1.69, 1.693, 1.696, 1.699, 1.811, 2.076, 2.079, 2.081, 2.084, 2.145, 2.224, 2.229, 2.234, 2.178, 2.192, 2.207, 2.217, 2.219 |
| Czech Republic | -0.0% | 1.4% | 0.1% | -1.009, -1.003, -0.917, -0.868, -0.859, -0.849, -0.84, -0.812, -0.803, -0.794, -0.785, -0.775, -0.513, -0.497, -0.481, -0.209, -0.182, -0.102, -0.075, -0.049, -0.032 |
| Hungary | 0.7% | 0.2% | -1.6% | 0.557, 0.553, 0.494, 0.557, 0.475, 0.467, 0.458, 0.433, 0.254, 0.246, 0.238, 0.231, 0.355, 0.354, 0.353, 0.352, 0.642, 0.645, 0.8, 0.806, 0.744 |
| South Africa | 1.7% | -0.3% | -0.6% | 2.019, 2.024, 1.651, 1.666, 1.682, 2.449, 2.459, 2.489, 2.499, 2.464, 2.474, 2.485, 2.424, 2.429, 2.435, 2.441, 2.447, 2.464, 2.47, 1.724, 1.688 |