Inflation is one of the most important drivers of asset returns. An accurate and timely read of unfolding conditions is critical to investment success. The Augur Labs Timely Underlying Inflation Nowcast is an alternative, big-data-driven measure of CPI changes.
Global Inflation Nowcast as of 4/26/2024
| Underlying Inflation (3-Month, Annualized) | 1m Change | 3m Change | 1m History | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 5.4% | -1.6% | -1.7% | 7.03, 7.266, 6.789, 6.727, 6.69, 6.68, 6.6, 6.565, 6.432, 6.196, 5.898, 5.81, 5.765, 5.724, 5.703, 5.685, 5.575, 5.532, 5.501, 5.449, 5.418 |
| Developed World | 3.9% | 0.3% | 2.9% | 3.739, 3.795, 3.787, 3.784, 3.776, 3.817, 3.829, 3.84, 3.777, 3.772, 3.763, 3.788, 3.774, 3.775, 3.786, 3.84, 3.869, 3.879, 3.905, 3.912, 3.935 |
| United States | 4.7% | 0.0% | 3.8% | 4.975, 5.057, 5.046, 5.036, 5.028, 5.077, 5.052, 5.05, 4.893, 4.879, 4.865, 4.826, 4.814, 4.799, 4.784, 4.772, 4.732, 4.716, 4.697, 4.679, 4.702 |
| DW ex US | 3.2% | 0.6% | 2.1% | 2.605, 2.636, 2.631, 2.635, 2.627, 2.661, 2.707, 2.729, 2.752, 2.756, 2.751, 2.835, 2.819, 2.834, 2.871, 2.985, 3.077, 3.11, 3.179, 3.207, 3.231 |
| Euro Area | 3.4% | 0.5% | 2.7% | 2.782, 2.805, 2.807, 2.788, 2.803, 2.868, 2.912, 2.933, 2.965, 2.946, 2.964, 3.053, 3.06, 3.097, 3.14, 3.183, 3.276, 3.312, 3.341, 3.37, 3.391 |
| Core | 3.7% | 0.4% | 3.1% | 3.002, 3.008, 3.003, 2.964, 2.975, 3.048, 3.083, 3.103, 3.121, 3.147, 3.158, 3.253, 3.291, 3.334, 3.386, 3.437, 3.539, 3.58, 3.614, 3.646, 3.667 |
| Germany | 4.0% | 0.5% | 2.7% | 3.486, 3.521, 3.499, 3.5, 3.503, 3.461, 3.432, 3.432, 3.436, 3.452, 3.477, 3.549, 3.583, 3.621, 3.677, 3.715, 3.824, 3.86, 3.896, 3.933, 3.958 |
| France | 2.4% | 0.3% | 2.9% | 1.207, 1.157, 1.175, 1.203, 1.234, 1.385, 1.502, 1.538, 1.575, 1.615, 1.596, 1.741, 1.796, 1.858, 1.923, 2.011, 2.174, 2.256, 2.324, 2.388, 2.442 |
| Netherlands | 5.1% | -0.5% | 4.2% | 5.622, 5.765, 5.736, 5.303, 5.266, 5.571, 5.579, 5.623, 5.624, 5.627, 5.635, 5.626, 5.612, 5.598, 5.583, 5.565, 5.406, 5.341, 5.25, 5.156, 5.051 |
| Belgium | 5.2% | 1.4% | 4.1% | 3.77, 3.611, 3.65, 3.697, 3.748, 3.851, 3.987, 4.037, 4.088, 4.148, 4.214, 4.415, 4.49, 4.568, 4.647, 4.725, 4.928, 4.994, 5.059, 5.124, 5.178 |
| Periphery | 2.9% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 2.361, 2.417, 2.432, 2.451, 2.471, 2.525, 2.585, 2.607, 2.665, 2.561, 2.593, 2.668, 2.615, 2.642, 2.668, 2.696, 2.774, 2.797, 2.818, 2.842, 2.862 |
| Italy | 2.2% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 1.45, 1.547, 1.574, 1.605, 1.637, 1.714, 1.816, 1.851, 1.884, 1.916, 1.95, 2.047, 1.904, 1.932, 1.959, 1.986, 2.058, 2.08, 2.101, 2.128, 2.154 |
| Spain | 4.0% | 0.5% | 1.9% | 3.521, 3.578, 3.579, 3.583, 3.591, 3.623, 3.621, 3.629, 3.64, 3.653, 3.685, 3.739, 3.766, 3.791, 3.819, 3.849, 3.95, 3.981, 4.008, 4.032, 4.045 |
| Ireland | 1.2% | -1.0% | -1.4% | 2.124, 2.067, 2.082, 2.1, 2.111, 2.146, 2.216, 2.233, 2.251, 1.151, 1.163, 1.181, 1.188, 1.195, 1.198, 1.204, 1.195, 1.186, 1.182, 1.174, 1.175 |
| Portugal | 4.4% | 0.9% | 4.1% | 3.538, 3.56, 3.576, 3.599, 3.623, 3.699, 3.778, 3.804, 3.756, 3.792, 3.831, 3.952, 3.999, 4.048, 4.092, 4.141, 4.253, 4.293, 4.332, 4.37, 4.402 |
| Greece | 4.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.691, 2.669, 2.654, 2.655, 2.654, 2.654, 2.66, 2.674, 3.507, 3.529, 3.564, 3.656, 3.699, 3.739, 3.782, 3.829, 3.972, 4.008, 4.039, 4.084, 4.123 |
| Japan | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.175, 1.199, 1.203, 1.209, 1.208, 1.157, 1.143, 1.146, 1.15, 1.152, 1.157, 1.18, 1.194, 1.206, 1.225, 1.683, 1.763, 1.789, 1.816, 1.836, 1.859 |
| United Kingdom | 4.0% | 0.2% | 2.4% | 3.797, 3.813, 3.824, 3.838, 3.852, 3.866, 3.912, 3.928, 3.945, 3.963, 3.982, 4.036, 4.053, 3.897, 3.909, 3.921, 3.947, 3.956, 3.964, 3.973, 3.98 |
| Canada | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.824, 2.012, 2.102, 2.199, 2.297, 2.467, 2.74, 2.849, 2.957, 3.068, 3.154, 3.455, 3.097, 3.189, 3.281, 3.376, 3.639, 3.729, 3.817, 3.896, 3.972 |
| Australia | 4.2% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 3.432, 3.363, 3.13, 3.149, 3.164, 3.068, 3.072, 3.076, 3.086, 3.098, 3.117, 3.19, 3.215, 3.242, 3.269, 3.302, 3.384, 3.424, 4.08, 4.117, 4.153 |
| Switzerland | 1.5% | -0.3% | 0.9% | 1.847, 1.915, 1.933, 1.959, 1.131, 1.13, 1.16, 1.173, 1.187, 1.203, 1.223, 1.283, 1.307, 1.333, 1.36, 1.386, 1.449, 1.47, 1.49, 1.51, 1.525 |
| Sweden | 3.1% | -0.8% | 1.2% | 3.923, 4.009, 4.0, 4.009, 4.026, 4.086, 4.069, 4.074, 4.081, 4.098, 2.962, 2.975, 2.998, 3.018, 3.037, 3.057, 3.083, 3.092, 3.095, 3.104, 3.103 |
| Norway | 3.9% | -0.1% | -0.3% | 3.986, 3.951, 3.941, 3.93, 3.916, 4.013, 4.027, 4.03, 3.791, 3.796, 3.805, 3.825, 3.834, 3.844, 3.856, 3.87, 3.89, 3.894, 3.897, 3.9, 3.899 |
| New Zealand | 3.8% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.854, 2.858, 2.882, 2.909, 2.934, 2.877, 2.921, 2.939, 2.959, 2.98, 3.006, 3.086, 3.121, 3.459, 3.492, 3.53, 3.631, 3.669, 3.708, 3.748, 3.784 |
| Emerging Markets | 7.6% | -4.4% | -8.5% | 11.902, 12.405, 11.233, 11.082, 11.003, 10.916, 10.701, 10.598, 10.363, 9.785, 9.059, 8.802, 8.711, 8.609, 8.54, 8.416, 8.101, 7.979, 7.862, 7.725, 7.612 |
| China | 1.0% | -0.9% | 0.7% | 1.898, 1.875, 1.892, 1.909, 1.929, 1.879, 1.919, 1.937, 1.952, 0.958, 0.965, 0.983, 0.989, 0.995, 1.002, 1.009, 1.013, 1.011, 1.008, 0.993, 0.99 |
| EM ex China | 14.4% | -8.1% | -17.9% | 22.129, 23.17, 20.783, 20.46, 20.281, 20.156, 19.679, 19.452, 18.961, 18.808, 17.334, 16.796, 16.607, 16.393, 16.247, 15.989, 15.347, 15.103, 14.87, 14.608, 14.382 |
| EM Asia ex China | 4.0% | -0.1% | 1.5% | 4.091, 4.218, 3.959, 3.986, 4.019, 4.121, 4.254, 4.232, 4.277, 4.322, 3.627, 3.744, 3.771, 3.802, 3.839, 3.878, 3.974, 3.951, 3.974, 3.941, 3.97 |
| India | 4.9% | -0.4% | 0.3% | 5.383, 5.505, 5.553, 5.611, 5.668, 5.762, 5.936, 6.013, 6.082, 6.148, 4.109, 4.274, 4.337, 4.395, 4.451, 4.511, 4.675, 4.729, 4.78, 4.834, 4.883 |
| South Korea | 5.2% | -0.4% | 4.7% | 5.706, 5.712, 4.243, 4.234, 4.262, 4.612, 4.809, 4.857, 4.901, 4.958, 5.025, 5.141, 5.108, 5.104, 5.128, 5.158, 5.177, 5.168, 5.15, 5.177, 5.203 |
| Indonesia | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 2.133, 2.63, 2.648, 2.665, 2.683, 2.693, 2.743, 2.759, 2.776, 2.792, 2.809, 2.858, 2.874, 2.891, 2.907, 2.923, 2.973, 2.99, 3.007, 3.024, 3.042 |
| Taiwan | 2.6% | 0.1% | 1.1% | 2.511, 2.59, 2.6, 2.615, 2.629, 2.771, 2.874, 2.076, 2.111, 2.146, 2.182, 2.29, 2.324, 2.357, 2.392, 2.429, 2.531, 2.561, 2.587, 2.614, 2.636 |
| Thailand | 1.8% | 0.9% | 2.4% | 0.919, 0.984, 1.017, 1.056, 1.094, 0.954, 1.071, 1.112, 1.151, 1.189, 1.23, 1.358, 1.399, 1.439, 1.484, 1.532, 1.656, 1.695, 1.73, 1.766, 1.796 |
| Malaysia | 1.8% | -0.9% | 1.0% | 2.623, 2.696, 2.7, 2.707, 2.712, 2.833, 2.904, 2.932, 2.955, 2.979, 3.006, 3.086, 3.111, 3.134, 3.162, 3.191, 3.263, 3.283, 3.298, 1.794, 1.752 |
| Philippines | 5.6% | 0.8% | 3.7% | 4.848, 4.934, 4.973, 5.016, 5.057, 4.701, 4.835, 4.881, 4.926, 4.97, 5.018, 5.16, 5.207, 5.256, 5.307, 5.361, 5.502, 5.547, 5.59, 5.609, 5.645 |
| Singapore | 2.6% | -1.0% | 0.5% | 3.578, 3.567, 3.553, 3.542, 3.53, 3.638, 3.651, 3.658, 3.662, 3.665, 3.671, 3.688, 3.691, 3.693, 3.699, 3.706, 3.717, 2.608, 2.593, 2.579, 2.562 |
| Hong Kong | 1.3% | 0.5% | -1.1% | 0.821, 0.759, 0.779, 0.799, 0.82, 0.836, 0.895, 0.914, 0.934, 0.954, 0.973, 1.032, 1.051, 1.071, 1.09, 1.11, 1.169, 1.233, 1.253, 1.273, 1.294 |
| Latin America | 40.5% | -34.3% | -88.6% | 73.296, 77.822, 67.498, 66.563, 65.672, 64.828, 62.46, 61.501, 59.86, 59.02, 53.944, 51.35, 50.45, 49.459, 48.763, 47.533, 44.541, 43.528, 42.492, 41.467, 40.456 |
| Brazil | 3.1% | -2.0% | -1.0% | 5.018, 5.03, 5.033, 5.041, 5.036, 4.934, 4.919, 4.916, 3.239, 3.218, 3.201, 3.137, 3.123, 3.109, 3.098, 3.088, 3.07, 3.067, 3.063, 3.062, 3.06 |
| Mexico | 4.0% | -0.6% | -0.9% | 4.556, 4.604, 4.601, 4.583, 4.551, 4.559, 4.56, 4.211, 4.206, 4.199, 4.201, 4.148, 4.139, 4.131, 4.122, 4.112, 4.085, 4.065, 4.036, 4.011, 4.006 |
| Argentina | 254.1% | -224.4% | -594.6% | 468.822, 499.334, 429.371, 423.059, 417.114, 411.707, 395.711, 390.105, 384.465, 378.855, 344.512, 327.277, 321.251, 314.6, 309.943, 301.667, 281.517, 274.712, 267.777, 260.904, 254.072 |
| EM Europe | 14.6% | -2.7% | 1.4% | 17.131, 17.101, 17.013, 16.432, 16.41, 16.422, 16.266, 16.227, 15.546, 15.566, 15.514, 15.353, 15.311, 15.257, 15.19, 15.133, 14.932, 14.877, 14.785, 14.679, 14.583 |
| Russia | 5.1% | -1.1% | -2.1% | 6.209, 6.207, 6.224, 6.231, 6.238, 6.267, 6.29, 6.32, 5.17, 5.164, 5.158, 5.14, 5.136, 5.136, 5.132, 5.132, 5.106, 5.147, 5.161, 5.144, 5.135 |
| Turkey | 51.0% | -11.9% | 9.3% | 63.118, 62.985, 62.499, 59.715, 59.276, 59.162, 58.212, 57.894, 57.566, 57.244, 56.926, 55.926, 55.58, 55.219, 54.798, 54.426, 53.219, 52.748, 52.154, 51.559, 50.995 |
| Poland | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 1.039, 0.914, 0.925, 0.944, 0.97, 1.003, 1.111, 1.161, 1.221, 1.29, 1.36, 1.584, 1.662, 1.747, 1.841, 1.926, 2.198, 2.297, 2.417, 2.551, 2.679 |
| Czech Republic | 5.1% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 3.487, 3.704, 3.738, 3.783, 4.648, 4.757, 4.897, 4.937, 4.281, 4.325, 4.374, 4.519, 4.574, 4.631, 4.688, 4.744, 4.892, 4.94, 4.987, 5.033, 5.073 |
| Hungary | 7.3% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 3.071, 3.203, 3.247, 3.304, 3.369, 3.546, 3.709, 3.764, 3.822, 5.563, 5.653, 5.925, 6.304, 6.408, 6.513, 6.618, 6.903, 6.998, 7.091, 7.184, 7.269 |
| South Africa | 6.1% | 0.2% | 5.3% | 5.983, 6.135, 6.132, 6.127, 6.152, 6.193, 6.236, 6.245, 6.246, 6.244, 6.241, 6.188, 6.178, 6.062, 6.06, 6.064, 6.082, 6.098, 6.112, 6.126, 6.138 |